Germany 2025: What political challenges lie ahead?

The Magdeburg Christmas market attack — and the heated political atmosphere that took hold in Germany as a result — have stressed how central the issues of domestic security and extremism will be for the next German government.

But other topics remain important as well. How does a government combat irregular immigration while boosting skilled immigration? And how does it safeguard against cyberattacks, uphold the rule of law and strengthen democracy against enemies within and without? These are some of the major challenges that the next German government will face in 2025, regardless of which party will be at the helm.

And yet, if you ask some Bundestag members, all of these challenges must first be pushed to the sidelines to address the crisis facing the country's economy. Flagship German companies like Volkswagen are in deep trouble, people are worried about their jobs and are struggling with rising prices and rents.

High energy prices and shortage of skilled workers

Marco Wanderwitz of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) was the federal commissioner for the eastern German states until 2021, and told DW: "The biggest problem we have in this country right now is that our economy is stuttering. And that is really affecting the foundations and the future. The big problem is that we have a loss of confidence in politics among economic leaders."

The government is being blamed for high energy prices, high wage levels, the deterioration of infrastructure, a shortage of skilled workers and too much bureaucracy.

According to Omid Nouripour, former leader of the Green Party, the last point in particular is showcased by the country's sluggish digitalization.

"We have a twofold crisis, both economically and structurally," he told DW. "You can see this, for example, in government offices, where fax machines are still considered a top means of communication. And you can see that in the investment backlog in this country."

These problems are exacerbated by external cyber-attacks, many from Russia, on infrastructure such as the country's power grids. "The most important thing is to protect critical infrastructure," Nouripour said. "We have too many vulnerabilities in this area. And there are too many players putting pressure on critical infrastructure."

This is why strengthening the police and intelligence services is an important task for the coming year.

A tougher stance on immigration is very likely

Two other issues that have long been identified as problems will pose a far greater challenge for a future government than they have so far: Immigration and the question of how the country should deal with the apparent rise of populism and far-right extremism. The Christmas market attack in Magdeburg highlighted this problem.

Both the number of applications for asylum and the estimated number of irregular immigrants have actually gone down in recent years, even though the European border protection agency Frontex estimates that around 166,000 people attempted to enter the EU irregularly in the first nine months of 2024.

Germany has reintroduced controls at all its borders, and the conservative CDU, which has a good chance of leading the next government after the February election, has now come out in favor of turning back refugees at the borders.

Local authorities say they can't cope

Many local authorities say they have reached their limit when it comes to receiving and caring for refugees. Stefan Seidler from the Südschleswigscher Wählerverband (SSW), a party representing Germany's Frisian and Danish minority in the north of the country, says he has seen this first-hand.

"What I can say from my perspective is that the municipalities are currently facing a huge task that they can hardly cope with," he told DW. "What they need is support from the federal government."

Wanderwitz, who is not running as a candidate for the Bundestag again, begs to differ. He believes immigration is manageable, though he knows how polarizing the issue is. "The numbers have gone down," he explained, and he feels the problems have been exaggerated. "I actually only know local politicians who say it's much less bad than in 2014 or 2015. But despite this, everyone has somehow raised the white flag," Wanderwitz said.

Nouripour believes the number of refugees heading to Germany may rise again. "We know that the situation in Ukraine could lead to more refugees, and we can see that one conflict or another could escalate further in the Middle East," he cautioned.

Safeguarding the Federal Constitutional Court

Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to make gains in February's election.

"We are currently experiencing massive pressure from the far right," Seidler warned. He is concerned about safeguarding the rights of minorities. "We are currently seeing those gain momentum who think that it is the majority alone who decides. But as a minority politician, I can only say clearly and unequivocally: A good democracy also shows consideration for its minorities."

This is part of the reason why Seidler supported a motion tabled in the Bundestag by the opposition CDU/CSU bloc, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens currently forming a minority government and their former coalition partner, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) to protect the independence of the Federal Constitutional Court against political interference. The reform raises the bar to alter the rules of the court, one thing that could be agreed on by the required two-thirds majority in the German parliament — even at a time of fierce election campaigning.

All politicians agree that 2025 will be another tough year, with fierce disputes and many crises to solve.

This article was originally written in German.

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