German election: Focus on immigration and the economy
January 10, 2025
According to the latest "Deutschlandtrend" survey, the balance of power in Berlin is set to shift significantly in Germany's upcoming federal election, which takes place on February 23.
The center-right bloc of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Bavaria's regional Christian Social Union (CSU), which governed in Germany for most of its post-World War II history but is currently in opposition, has lost two percentage points compared to last month, but is still ahead of their competitors at 31%. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in second place at 20%, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) comes in third at 15%, just ahead of the Greens (14%).
The newly founded left populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) polls at 5%, enough to secure representation in the Bundestag parliament. On the other hand, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the Left Party would fail to cross the five percent hurdle: They each poll only at 4%. Pollster Infratest-dimap conducted its latest representative survey of 1,323 eligible voters from January 6 to 8.
The top candidates and political parties still have six weeks left to campaign ahead of the election, which was triggered by the collapse in November of the three-way center-left government comprised of the SPD, Greens and FDP.
Unpopular candidates
Opinion polls consistently show dissatisfaction with the parties' top candidates. All of them are disliked by the majority of respondents. This is unique among all other general election campaigns Infratest-dimap has monitored since 1998.
Although 31% support the CDU/CSU, only 25% say they are satisfied with the bloc's candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz. The opposite is true for the Greens: Only 14% say they approve of the party, but 28% like its top candidate, Economy Minister Robert Habeck.
Around one in five respondents are satisfied with Alice Weidel (AfD), Christian Lindner (FDP), Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and Olaf Scholz respectively. However, the incumbent Chancellor and SPD's lead candidate is the most unpopular, with three quarters of respondents giving him and his work poor marks.
Migration and the economy top the list of concerns
When asked about the most important problems that politicians should tackle after the election, 37% named immigration, ahead of the state of the economy. Around one in seven said they are concerned about foreign affairs, 13% mention environmental and climate protection, and 11%cite other social problems.
Only six to eight percent of respondents see education, domestic security, pension payments, inflation, and medical care in Germany as the most pressing issues.
In their campaigns, the parties have proposed various remedies to overcome Germany's economic malady. Infratest-dimap asked voters to rate the ideas. The introduction of tax-free bonuses for overtime is supported by 78% of respondents, and 67% of them would like to see a rise in the minimum wage to 15 euros per hour.
Seventy-one percent spoke out in favor of state investment compared to 53% who believe a general reduction in corporate taxes would be a good idea. One in two support the relaxation of climate policy regulations such as the abolition of the CO2 tax. Half of respondents also favor subsidies for the purchase of German-made electric vehicles.
A 61% majority of those polled expressed opposition to reviving German-Russian economic relations with the lifting of sanctions against Russia, which were imposed following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Social cohesion
More cohesion in German society is the SPD's campaign slogan. The Infratest pollsters found that respondents perceive a strong sense of cohesion in their private lives: in their families, among their friends and acquaintances at home and at work.
The view of society as a whole was less positive: One in two said they had a negative perception of social interaction when shopping or in traffic. What reasons did they give?
They said it is primarily the result of social, cultural and economic worries, as well as the impact of international crises.
This article was originally written in German.
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