German election: Immigration and economy key issues

It was a short but sharply contested election campaign, in which one thing was clear: the desire for change. "You tried for three years to implement left-wing policies in Germany. You cannot continue with that anymore," said Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

He was addressing the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the environmentalist Greens, who had governed together with the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) since 2021. That fractious coalition collapsed in November, following months of infighting over the budget. The breakup led to the snap election being called for this Sunday.

SPD threatened with a catastrophe

The latest polling indicates that the Greens will get about the same share of the vote as they did back in 2021, but the SPD and FDP are set to suffer massive losses. The FDP may even fail to clear the 5% hurdle required for seats in the Bundestag, the German parliament. The SPD looks set for a bitter defeat. Anything less than 20% would be the party's worst result in a federal election in Germany's post-World War II history — and the party is polling far below this.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz would become the government leader with the shortest term in office in the past 50 years and the only SPD chancellor ever not to be reelected.

AfD in second place

According to the polls, Merz has the best chance of becoming chancellor. His center-right bloc became the largest opposition force in parliament in 2021, following 16 years in government under former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Polling in second place is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) expected to win a solid 20% of the vote, which would be double its share in 2021.

The dramatic fall of the SPD and the rise of the AfD — how could that happen?

Friedrich Merz points to the economy. "The economy of our country, the Federal Republic of Germany, has fallen behind in the European Union." About 50,000 businesses have gone into insolvency, about €100 billion ($105 billion) worth of company capital per year has flowed overseas. "Our economy is shrinking; we have a recession for the third year in a row. That has never happened before in Germany's postwar history."

Scholz and his Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who is the Greens' candidate for chancellor, are "no longer in touch with reality," Merz said. "Do you know what they remind me of? Two managing directors employed by a company who have driven it into the ground and then go back to the owners and say: We would like to carry on like this for the next four years."

War, energy crisis, inflation

On the campaign trail, Merz scaled up his attacks while Chancellor Scholz was increasingly on the defensive. Although he seemed more combative than he had in recent years, Scholz was struggling to defend and justify the actions of his government, which was the most unpopular ever in Germany's post-WW II history.

Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022 led to an energy crisis and inflation. "The economy has been struggling with the consequences ever since," Scholz said. Referring to the policy shift of the new US administration, Scholz has warned that there will be tough times ahead, too : "There is a rough wind blowing. And the truth is, that will not fundamentally change in the coming years."

Key issue: Migration

How to fix the ailing economy was set to be one of the main issues of the election campaign. However, following a deadly knife attack by a rejected asylum seeker from Afghanistan in the Bavarian city of Aschaffenburg, the topic of immigration began to dominate political debate. Especially since, shortly following the crime, Merz attempted to tighten Germany's asylum policies even before the election. For this, he was willing to accept support from the AfD in parliament.

AfD lawmakers rejoiced when, in late January, Merz's non-binding motion gained a majority in the Bundestag with the help of the AfD for the first time. "A new era is beginning here and now," said Bernd Baumann, AfD parliamentary group leader. "Something new is starting now, and we are leading it."

No cooperation with the extreme right

Following the Bundestag vote, hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated nationwide against a shift to the right in Germany, while Scholz and his party accused the CDU and AfD of intending to form a coalition government after the election.

In the following days and weeks, Merz took every opportunity to rule out any cooperation with the AfD, explaining that the right-wing extremists are out to destroy the CDU and CSU. The CDU/CSU would not form a coalition with the AfD under any circumstances, he vowed.

Who could form a new coalition?

Germany's election system is designed to favor coalition governments. The CDU/CSU will not be able to rule alone; after the election they will need to find at least one coalition partner to reach the majority needed to pass laws. The more parties in the Bundestag, the more difficult it is to build a government. So it will be important whether the socialist Left Party, the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the FDP manage to get representation.

For a two-way coalition, the CDU/CSU may turn to either the SPD or the Greens. Reconciling policy principles won't be easy: The Social Democrats have their social policy at the top of their agenda, for the Greens it is climate protection.

However, if the small parties do make it into parliament, three parties might be needed to make up the numbers for a stable government.

The AfD is isolated — all other parties have so far vowed not to work with them. But the far-right party's top candidate Alice Weidelsaid this would not stop their ascent to power. According to her, the political "turnaround" is coming and is only being "unnecessarily delayed."

Merz stressed that the new government will be "one of the last chances" to reduce the breeding ground for the AfD. "If that does not succeed, then we will no longer be dealing with only 20% right-wing populism," he said.

Merz has been speaking of the "political responsibility" for the traditional parties to come together to solve Germany's problems, telling the SPD and the Greens: "That is a responsibility that you cannot evade, and we will not evade it either."

This article was originally written in German.

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