Georgia's path to the EU looms large in 2024 election

Ahead of the upcoming elections, Georgia's capital Tbilisi is covered in blue. Both the blue of the EU flag with its stars and the white of the Georgian state flag with its crosses are widely used on the current election posters. The sea of blue is hardly surprising as Georgia's path to the European Union is one of the main topics of this vote.

Since 2018, the ambition to join the EU has even been enshrined in the country's constitution. For years, polls have shown that a stable majority of around 80% of the population supports EU accession.

But the irony is that Georgia's path to the EU was paved five years ago by the very party that critics today accuse of driving the country further away from the EU.

The ruling Georgian Dream party's election slogan is "Yes to the EU — but with dignity!" — essentially meaning on our own terms.

Torn between Europe and Russia

Georgia, a former Soviet country, has been independent since 1991, but it is only now truly at a crossroads. "Europe or Russia," as Renata Skardziute-Kereselidze from the Georgian Institute of Politics think tank in Tbilisi put it.

"It's not just a matter of polarization, as we have been observing for years, but the current government is threatening to ban opposition parties altogether and persecute independent media and organizations," Skardziute-Kereselidze told DW. In her view, this is "truly worrying."

However, would it even be possible for the Georgian Dream party to maintain its power with such threats? "After three terms in office, it is not easy for any party to remain in government," Skardziute-Kereselidze said.

"There is always much to criticize after such a long time," she adds. In her view, a change of government would be healthy for the Georgian democracy.

"It will still be difficult for any Georgian opposition party to win the elections decisively," Skardziute-Kereselidze said. They all seek to attract people with the same blue European flag.

And yet, there are also many questions that concern Georgia residents, including what EU membership means and how Georgia will guarantee human rights and protect religious and sexual minorities. Georgia also a Christian-conservative country that is heavily influenced by the powerful Georgian-Orthodox church, and there are doubts such a country fits with the EU.

Government stokes fears of war, LGBTQ+

Also, Russia's war in Ukraine casts a shadow on the Georgian election. "No to war and yes to peace" is one of the slogans on the Georgian Dream's election billboards.

The posters have caused controversy as they feature photos of destroyed Ukrainian towns and picturesque Georgian cities. Kyiv protested against this juxtaposition, though unsuccessfully.

The posters remain on display, and their message is crystal clear: only the current government in Tbilisi can guarantee peace. Everyone else is a supporter of an ominous "global war party" that brings destruction, a narrative the Georgian Dream party has been increasingly using.

Their founder, former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, heedlessly lumps the Ukraien war together with LGBTQ+ rights. He also stated that the alleged Western propaganda of sexual minorities endangers Georgian society.

"The global war party is a very powerful force with many resources. It confronts the world with LGBTQ propaganda and influences many bureaucrats in developing countries," he said in a TV interview.

Ivanishvil claimed that if the opposition regained power, there would be war in Georgia the next day.

Moscow's legal playbook

Georgia is a conservative Christian country, influenced by the powerful Georgian Orthodox Church, one of the country's most trusted institutions.

Also the Georgian Dream party has taken up the fight for so-called traditional family values as if the country had no other concerns even though it still considered a developing country.

Just a few weeks ago, an anti-queer law was passed to supposedly protect family values and minors, following the Russian example.

Another parallel is the "foreign influence" law, which stipulates that organizations that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad must register as "pursuing the interests of a foreign power" or as "agents of foreign influence."

It was pushed through parliament in May of this year despite mass protests, further highlighting an ideological shift towards Russia and away from Europe.

The "foreign influence" law also resulted in Georgia's EU accession negotiations being put on hold in July, even though the EU had granted the country candidate status just six months earlier.

In October, the European Parliament reiterated that "unless the legislation is rescinded, progress cannot be made in Georgia's relations with the EU."

Election results wide open

"Those in power are only interested in distracting attention from their own failures," the queer activist Tamar Jakeli, the head of prominent LGBTQ+ rights group Tbilisi Pride, told DW.

"I think the government is losing support in general as they have failed to fulfill promises of a social state in the past 12 years," the 28-year-old said.

In her view, the Georgian Dream party has been spreading division and hatred instead of improving the lives of its citizens.

If nothing changes after the election, she is thinking about leaving Georgia just like many of her generation, but it is too early to decide.

The outcome remains open. Georgian polls are unreliable as some say the ruling party has just under 30% support while others pin it closer to 60%.

Pro-EU protest vote expected

Many people on the streets of Tbilisi want their country to join the EU as soon as possible.

"I think that pro-EU parties will win and Georgia will return to its European path," a young woman told DW on the capital's Independence Square.

"People are already running away, Georgia will soon be empty if things go on like this," a young man said. "Everyone wants better living conditions and we hope for Europe."

For Skardziute-Kereselidze, the Georgian Institute of Politics researcher, it is clear that Georgia's upcoming election will turn out to be a protest vote.

"Many voters have decided against the government to finally be more closely linked to the EU," she said. "This election is an election for long-term stability and security, rather than for rapprochement with Russia."

In other words, for the blue EU flag and not for the Russian white-blue-red stripes.

This article was originally published in German.