Georgia's elections: Will voters lean to the EU or Russia?

Fears are growing that next month's election in  Georgia could bring the country to the brink of dictatorship, closing the door to accession to the European Union (EU) for the foreseeable future. The mountainous country in the South Caucasus region was formally  granted EU candidate status in December, but Brussels quickly put the process on hold after Georgia passed a controversial "foreign agents" law granting the state more power to go after non-governmental organizations and popular media outlets.

Critics have been deriding the legislation as "the Russian law," as it resembles a foreign agent bill in Russia that allows the government to persecute opposition members.

Earlier this year on the campaign trail, former head of the governing Georgian Dream (GD) party and now prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, exacerbated fears when he announced that if he wins the October 26 election, he would ban leading opposition parties.

Kobakhidze was appointed prime minister by parliament in February, following a reshuffle of GD leadership that was criticized. 

Now, he and other GD officials have spread fears of a "global war party" that is allegedly conspiring to drag Georgia into a war with Russia. Observers have interpreted this as a rejection of the EU and the NATO military alliance, to which Georgia does not belong. 

The Georgian opposition is distributed across five party alliances, all broadly liberal, conservative or social democratic, but united in their pro-European stance as well as rejection of President Vladimir Putin's regime in Russia.

Recently, these opposition parties agreed to set aside their differences during the election and unite to oppose the autocratic and anti-European threat they see in the GD party.

Why has Georgia changed tack?

Most believe billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili is behind the change of course in Georgian foreign policy. The founder of the ruling GD party, Ivanishvili made his fortune in Russia and held the office of Georgian prime minister for a little over a year before departing from the limelight — if not from power — in 2013. 

Now, he propagates an anti-Western credo at party rallies, promising that the "violent attempts to externally enforce pseudo-liberal values" would soon be over.

Neither he nor staff at his party have responded to questions from foreign journalists. One GD supporter who also heads a large business close to the state told DW the GD party's critical remarks about the EU were "just talk," and that Georgia was still on track to join the EU.

The manager, who wished to stay anonymous, added that the party was more interested in resetting relations with Russia. Meanwhile, GD campaign posters show the EU flag and the party slogan: "Towards Europe only with peace, dignity and prosperity."

Is the ruling party faking it?

But overtures to Europe are a ruse, according to Shota Utiashvili, senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies.

"They want to blur the focus of the opposition voters," he said. "If both parties are for the EU, why bother going and voting for the opposition?"

The GD goal, he added, was to frame the campaign not as a choice between the EU and Russia but as one between war and peace.

Georgia's powerful northern neighbor dominated the Caucasus region for centuries. In 2008, Moscow led a five-day-war against its independent southern neighbor and has since effectively turned two Georgian regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia into Russian military bases.

Apart from Russia, only four UN member states that recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, while the overwhelming majority, including Germany, view them as territories of Georgia.

The loss of the two regions struck most Georgians as a national trauma — a 2020 survey conducted by Carnegie Europe and the Mikeladze Foundation found that 75%-80% of those questioned prioritized regaining control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia over gaining membership to NATO and the EU, while 9%-19% prioritized European and trans-Atlantic integration. 

Will Tbilisi become Minsk II?

While Western diplomats and observers in Tbilisi fear that a two-thirds majority for the GD party would pave the way for a dictatorship, those active in civil society are more concerned with a buzzword currently making the rounds: "Minsk II."  It sums up the fear many harbor that the capital could soon witness political repression similar to what has been seen in Belarus.

The fear of political violence, especially if the election becomes a tight race, does not appear unfounded.

"The worst-case scenario is that GD falsifies the elections, leading to protests by young people, especially students, who are not easily intimidated," said Nodar Kharshiladze, founder of the Georgian Analytical Center think tank. "This could escalate into violent clashes, potentially resulting in casualties."

George Melashvili from the pro-European think tank Europe Georgia Institute believes that GD party founder and honorary chair Ivanishvili has already sketched out what would happen in the worst case: "Total annihilation of the opposition, and consolidation of authoritarian power in a one-party state." Melashvili said he also fears violence in the streets following the election.

In late August, Sergey Narshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, made veiled threats of Russian intervention should the pro-Russian GD party not come out on top.

But many in Tbilisi have dismissed the statement as rhetorical saber-rattling. Security expert Utiashvili explained: "Russian military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are empty, so are 58th Army barracks in the north Caucasus." He added that, due to the war in Ukraine, Russia had withdrawn too many forces to be able to intervene in Georgia.

This article was translated from German.