From Helmand to Kunduz

NATO troops are currently trying to drive the Taliban out of Helmand province in southern Afghanistan. It is their biggest offensive since the fall of the Taliban. Later this year, they plan to turn their attention to Kunduz in the north, where the German contingent is stationed.

"There will surely be an operation up there," says Bruno Kasdorf, Chief of Staff at ISAF HQ in Kabul. "I can’t say that it will be as big and comprehensive as the one going on in Helmand right now but it will definitely be something similar."

It has long been clear that Kunduz is one of the most dangerous regions in Afghanistan. This was already known before two fuel tankers were hijacked by the Taliban last September and then bombed by ISAF forces, in a controversial operation that killed dozens.

Best approach is to clear and hold an area

Kasdorf says the situation in the area remains problematic but hopes that it will improve considerably after the operation later this year. "We think that the right approach is to say that once an area has been cleared it also has to be held. We also have to ensure that the administration is functioning."

In the past, offensives have failed because not enough forces have been deployed to hold areas and the Taliban have thus been able to make a comeback. This is supposed to change. The operation in Helmand is an important test of whether such a strategy is possible.

"We have already said that we’re going to Kandahar next," says Kasdorf. "We now have to look at what approach to take. We’re thinking about it right now. It will especially depend on the benefits for the local people – they are the main focus. So that afterwards we can say 'yes, governance has been restored.' That’s a much bigger challenge than the military part of this operation."

2010 is a crucial turning point

The year 2010 is seen as a crucial turning point. Analysts fear that if the situation does not turn for the better it could spell disaster for Afghanistan. Kasdorf thinks NATO can be "cautiously confident".

"We have to manage it; we have to be successful here in Afghanistan. Imagine Afghanistan if we don’t manage to ensure long-lasting stability. There will probably be another civil war in this country. And it cannot be ruled out that the Taliban could return to power. And then the terrorists would once again have a haven, which is exactly what we wanted to avoid."

The highest-ranking German officer in ISAF can sense that there is more confidence than two years ago but cannot be 100 percent sure that the Afghan and international forces will get everything under control.

Author: Kai Küstner / act
Editor: Thomas Baerthlein