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Republican race

August 19, 2011

As soon as he declared his candidacy for president, Rick Perry altered the dynamics of the Republican nomination race. The conservative Texan is seen as a top contender, but he has a problem lurking in his past.

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Rick Perry
Perry's late entry has mixed up the raceImage: picture alliance/Globe-ZUMA

It had long been expected, but when Texas Governor Rick Perry finally threw his had in the ring last weekend he instantly garnered not only the media's interest, but like a lightning rod attracted the collective attacks of what has been described, until his arrival, as a lackluster field of Republican presidential candidates.

Not surprisingly, the first question that springs to mind about Perry's entry into the race is whether Americans just four years after the presidency of George W. Bush are ready to send another Texas governor to the White House.

Add to that that Perry's political career is not just closely aligned with George W. Bush, under whom he served as lieutenant governor of Texas until he took office himself in 2000, but that Perry is even more conservative than his former boss.

"I think it's fair to say that he is further to the right than George W. Bush on many issues," Mark Hallerberg, professor of public management and political economy at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, told Deutsche Welle.

So again, how can a Texan governor whose career took off under George W. Bush and who trumps his former mentor in his conservative outlook become a top contender for the Republican ticket?

The answer is two-fold.

The first part harks back to the old 'It's the economy, stupid' adage from the Clinton campaign.

Texas economy

"He has a very attractive narrative," says George C. Edwards III, a professor of political science and a presidential scholar at Rick Perry's alma mater Texas A&M University in College Station. "And the narrative at a time of economic trouble in the United States is that in Texas he oversaw a period when a lot of jobs were added while the rest of the country had a difficult time increasing employment."

According to recent figures by the Federal Reserve in Dallas, 40 percent of all new jobs in the US since the summer of 2009 have been created in Texas.

George W. Bush at a White House press conference
Walking in his footsteps: Perry's predecessor George W. BushImage: AP

And while what has been dubbed the Texas miracle by the Perry campaign is being parsed and attacked by his Republican competitors and the White House alike, Perry's job growth message - regardless of whether he had a direct role in it and external contributing factors - is likely to resonate with an electorate at a time when job creation on the national level is negative.

The second part of the answer has to do with the make-up of the current Republican Party.

And for the party faithful Rick Perry has a good story to tell as well.

True blue conservative

Perry hails from Texas, met his wife in elementary school, served as an air force pilot and later rose through the ranks in Texas politics. He is the longest-serving governor in Texas history and has never raised taxes. Unlike his perceived main competitor Mitt Romney he is not a billionaire and top executive, but instead was an early champion of the radical Tea Party movement.

In a nutshell: "He is more Texan than George W. Bush ever was," says Hallerberg.

"And he will certainly alienate a lot of people with his very conservative stances on general policy and the role of the federal government, but the Republican electorate is quite conservative and so he is likely to be very popular among them," adds Edwards.

In fact, Perry's economic and Texas narrative allows him to appeal to a majority of the different political camps within the Republican Party: the fiscal and economic conservatives, the social conservatives and the Religious Right as well as the anti-government Tea Party segment.

Tea Party champion

With repeated threats that Texas could secede from the US in 2009, Perry was already lionized by the anti-Washington crowd at a time when many other establishment Republicans didn't even know what to make of the Tea Party movement.

Just days after his entry into the presidential race, Perry played to the Tea Party audience again, saying it would amount to treason if Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke were to print more money before the election. Just before his candidacy he had organized a controversial prayer rally at which many prominent evangelicals appeared.

Asked about Rick Perry's broader political agenda or vision, the experts unanimously cite his animus against government.

Texas oil field
High energy prices have helped the Texan economyImage: AP

"He doesn't have big agendas because he really isn't for government doing very much," says Edwards. As an example Edwards explains how Perry, in order to get rid of Texas' $20 billion (14 billion euros) budget deficit, decided simply to make spending cuts without raising a single penny in taxes.

"They cut for instance over $4 billion out of the elementary and secondary education," notes Edwards. "Texas is the most rapidly growing state and has a very young population so you can imagine that there would be a large need for schools for children."

So while this stance might alienate some voters outside of Texas and those not aligned with the Republican Party and the more centrist Mitt Romney might pose a bigger challenge for President Barack Obama in the national election, most analysts think Perry gets the Republican base more excited and thus could be the candidate to beat.

Support for Gore

However, the Republican's base almost-too-perfect candidate has committed one serious ideological transgression.

Back in 1988 Rick Perry, the hard-charging Texas conservative, served as Al Gore's campaign chair for the state when Gore ran for the presidency. Perry who was a Democrat at the time has ridiculed and distanced himself from Gore. Still, his support for the Republicans' nemesis Al Gore is sure to be campaign fodder for his opponents.

That's probably true, argues Hallerberg. "But if you look at his record I think eventually that issue will go away."

In other words: Rick Perry has tacked so much to the right that any linkage to Al Gore is simply nonsensical.

Author: Michael Knigge
Editor: Rob Mudge