Finnish National Polls Set to Be a Close Call

A day before the Finnish general election on Sunday, March 16, the two leading parties are still neck and neck. Recent surveys show that support for the ruling Social Democrats has dropped slightly in the last month, while the center-right opposition Center Party led by ex-lawyer Anneli Jäätteenmäki has gained a slim lead.

Since 1995, incumbent Social Democrat Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen has led a "rainbow" coalition, a cooperation between Social Democrats, the Conservative Party, the Left Alliance and the Swedish People's Party. The Greens quit the coalition in May, 2002, after parliament voted to build a new nuclear power plant.

A committed European, Lipponen sees Finland's interests best represented within the European Union. He has embraced adoption of the euro, which he believes has helped move the country towards greater fiscal stability.

A stable and experienced government

Klaus von Lepel, an expert on Finland at the Humboldt University in Berlin, sees Lipponen's pro-European stance as one of the reasons for the rainbow coalition's popularity. "Compared to other countries, Finland is in sound economic shape," he points out. "The government has pursued a highly constructive European policy and succeeded in cultivating a clear profile in terms of foreign policy."

Von Lepel also believes the coalition has proved to be a stable government. "Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen (photo) managed to create a relatively harmonious coalition out of four very different parties which enjoys a relatively broad parliamentary majority. It will be difficult for the opposition parties to gain any footing within the government."

The 61-year-old Lipponen told the news agency Reuters recently that his party has a good chance of securing another four-year term if its supporters turn out in large numbers on Sunday.

Falling voter turnout has been a big challenge for Finnish elections, with the 1999 polls bringing out just 68 percent of people compared with 86 percent in the 1960s. Some 4.2 million Finns will be eligible to vote on Sunday from a total population of 5.2 million.

Lipponen is hoping that his track record -- Finland's successful 1999 EU presidency, adoption of the euro and sound economic growth -- will return him to power. He has repeatedly warned that the conservative Center Party could upset his strict budget discipline if they were to take over the reins of the nation.

A fresh face

The main thorn in Lipponen's side is Center Party leader, 47-year-old Anneli Jäätteenmäki, who could be Finland's first female prime minister. Her party would need to form a coalition with Finland's third strongest party, the Conservatives, to ensure an election win. And the Conservatives are unlikely to agree -- they've indicated they will be sticking by their present partners, the Social Democrats.

Jäätteenmäki has heavily criticized the government's stance on Iraq, saying the prime minister has done too little to push for a peaceful solution to the crisis. Lipponnen insists that Finland wants to see a United Nations-brokered solution and has offered aid for Iraq's reconstruction in the aftermath of a possible war.

With the majority of Finns opposed to a U.S.-led military strike on Iraq, the issue could prove pivotal in Sunday's election. According to Klaus von Lepel, a victory for Anneli Jäätteenmäki would mean that Finnish foreign policy would adopt "a far more cautious course. She's been firmly opposed to the government's policy on the Iraq issue, which would make her likely to ally Finland closely with the German-French camp."

The issues at stake

Nonetheless, it seems unlikely that the Iraq crisis will determine the outcome of the election.

So far, the election campaign has focused mainly on tax cuts and the high unemployment rate. Von Lepel believes the people of Finland are concerned first and foremost with domestic issues such as pensions, health care, joblessness and childcare. One issue on which the majority of the population as well as most political parties agree is support for EU enlargement --Finland hopes that the EU's eastward expansion planned for 2004 will bring increased stability to the Baltic area.

The people of Finland will have to decide whether they prefer seasoned politician Lipponen with his eight years of experience, or Jäätteenmäki, a novice when it comes to foreign policy. In the face of the Iraqi crisis and an economic slowdown, the race is set to be a close one.