Fate of Russian military bases in Syria remains open

The question of whether Russia will lose its two military bases in Syria following the collapse of Bashar Assad's regime will likely not be answered quickly.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that discussing the matter was "premature." Russian media outlets reported that the rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had guaranteed Moscow the bases' security.

Though the facts seem to support this, there has not been confirmation from other sources. Russia operates two military bases in Syria — a naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean, which was established by the Soviets, and an air base at Khmeimim that was built in 2015. The bases in Syria are Russia's only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union and have been important for the Kremlin's activities in Africa and the Middle East.

"There is visible activity of transport aircraft at Khmeimim but not to the extent that a full-blown evacuation can be spoken about," said Gustav Gressel, a defense expert who was previously at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). He added that Russian ships were currently in the Mediterranean "for maneuvers," but not far from Tartus.

"I guess that behind the scenes Russia will find a deal to keep the bases in the country," Gressel told DW. "If they had been abandoned, an evacuation would indeed be underway."

Russia has softened its tone towards HTS

Military historian Colonel Markus Reisner said that Russia's naval base in Tartus is now "strategically more important" because "forces can be projected into the Mediterranean from there." Moscow's air base in Khmeimim was necessary to support the Assad regime against rebels, "but that is no longer the case."

For political scientist Mark Galeotti, the author of "Putin's Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine," both bases are " very important in terms of Russian activity in Mediterranean and Africa." 

He said it was "striking" that just recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had described the group as "terrorists," but by the weekend, "they were being called 'insurgent forces.'" Galeotti also pointed out that even before Assad was removed from power, Moscow's tone towards HTS had become "much more polite."

What can Moscow offer HTS?

Russia is "certainly hoping to reach some kind of deal with HTS," said Galeotti. Although HTS is supported by Turkey, he said "it doesn't want to become a Turkish proxy. It will need some kind of allies and relationships."

This is where Russia comes into play.

"The Russians are cynical and pragmatic enough to be there. It gives [HTS] a chance to diversify from simply being dependent on Ankara," Galeotti said. He also pointed out that Russia not only had a military presence in Syria but also had "a certain economic standing" and that Russia was Syria's main trading partner.

Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert at the British think tank RUSI, was not convinced that the Syrian rebels would be so quick to comply with Moscow's wishes.

"It is highly doubtful that HTS will rush to be seen as allying with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin or greenlighting a long-term Russian military presence on Syria's Mediterranean coast," Ozcelik said. "Especially as Assad has been granted asylum on Russian territory."

Ozcelik predicted that there would be lengthy negotiations in which "regional actors, like Russia and Iran, will try to reposition their foreign policy interests vis a vis Syria." 

Where could the Russian military go instead of Syria?

If the Russian military does have to leave Syria, albeit in installments, then where will it go?

"The Russians don't really have any good options," said Galeotti. He said that Assad's Syria was so heavily dependent that there was no comparable country in the region.

Libya, where Russia maintains contacts with General Khalifa Haftar and with whom Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group once fought, is one of the most frequently mentioned options. Western media have reported on Russia's intention to establish a naval base in Libya.

Reisner said he suspected that this could be in Tobruk. Galeotti doubted this would be possible so quickly as there was no prior infrastructure. The same applied to Sudan, with which Russia had been in negotiations over a naval base in the Red Sea for years. "Wherever they go — Libya, Mali, Sudan, whatever — they will not be in the same position they were in Syria," he said.

Little impact on war in Ukraine

The following question has also arisen in this context: If Russia withdraws its military from Syria, what will this mean for its war against Ukraine? Galeotti said there would be "negligible consequences" in that respect. He said the size of the forces Moscow could transfer from Syria to the Ukrainian front would be insignificant.

Gressel took a similar view. "For Ukraine, the good news [from Syria] is limited," he said, explaining that Russia had neither the capacity nor the desire to open a second front, while it was using all its means to wage war against Ukraine.

This article was originally written in German.