Fact check: What's behind electoral fraud allegations

Only a few days before last weekend’s key elections in the German state of Brandenburg, the regional branch of Germany's far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) published a call on its Facebook page. 

The message offered "indispensable tools" for voters to observe the elections and look out for "problems, fraud or mistakes." It linked to a podcast on the "most serious cases of electoral fraud in recent years." 

The post also offered links to a group called "Ein Prozent," which brings together "electoral observers" and describes itself as "Germany's largest patriotic citizens' network." However, according to the country's intelligence services, "Ein Prozent" is a confirmed right-wing extremist organization.  

This appeal by the AfD is part of a larger and long-standing strategy of sowing distrust in the democratic process before and after elections and calling out what the party sees as voter manipulation against it.   

The distrust is also popular on social media under the hashtag "Wahlbetrug" (voter fraud in German). In the Brandenburg elections, which the AfD narrowly lost to the governing Social Democrats, dozens of posts on X (such as this oneand this one) alleged to show voter manipulation against the AfD.  

The strategy is not exclusive to the AfD, but rather a narrative that is also seen in other countries, predominantly among right-wing populist parties and politicians who repeatedly bash the electoral process but rarely present waterproof evidence.  

The claims, which to a large extent focus on postal voting, then fall on fertile ground on social media among their sympathizers.  

For instance, the program of Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) for this Sunday's legislative elections specifically calls for voters "who care about democracy" to turn up in person at the polling station and not vote by post. 

Postal voting, according to the FPÖ, opens the door to electoral fraud because "there are repeated inconsistencies and accusations that votes are collected and cast centrally in 'migrant communities' or retirement homes." 

There are several posts on social media channels, such as this one, that seem close to the FPÖ calling for a "megademo" in case of voter fraud. 

And beyond Europe, politicians like the former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro have repeatedly pushed similar narratives. 

Voter fraud claims are already making the rounds ahead of the US presidential election in November on various social media platforms. DW fact-checked several of the claims here. 

The retirement-home theory 

Daniel Hellmann, an expert at Germany's Institute for Parliamentary Research, told DW that these kinds of claims are being used not only to delegitimize political opponents but more broadly as an "attack on the credibility of the system as a whole." 

It is also a narrative that seems to be becoming more prominent in the political debate, especially thanks to public figures like Trump. 

The former US president blamed his election defeat in 2020 on a "rigged" voting system and in particular criticized mail-in voting by calling it a "whole big scam." 

These claims echo similar narratives by the FPÖ in Austria and the AfD in Germany, which share the belief that postal votes are susceptible to manipulation.

German authorities, however, have stressed they are a proven alternative and "as secure as voting at the polling station." 

And in individual cases where voter fraud may be suspected, investigations are carried out. In September's regional election in the state of Saxony, not far away from Brandenburg, police found postal ballots manipulated in favor of the Free Saxons party, described as a far-right extremist group.

Aiko Wagner, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University, explained that mail-in ballots are often criticized by parties like the AfD because they are seen as a less transparent way to vote than depositing the ballot in person.  

This raises suspicions which, as Wagner adds in an interview with DW, are fueled even further when electoral results show the AfD performing worse among postal voters than among in-person voters. 

This skepticism, for instance, was evident after the Brandenburg election.  

AfD's co-leader Timo Chrupalla said in a press conference he didn't know whether AfD voters were generally not inclined to vote by post, but he added that it’s "no secret" that postal ballots are prone to be manipulated.  

And he referred to what some call the "retirement-home theory." This is the idea that old people who cannot vote in person are not voting freely, but are rather put under pressure by specific parties.  

Chrupalla said parties "go in and out of old people's homes," except the AfD, which is often denied entry. He didn't provide any evidence to support his claim.

Retirement home providers and nursing organizations have oftenrejected these kinds of accusations. 

Moreover, the office of Brandenburg's returning officer told DW in an email that it hadn't received any information on electoral fraud allegations.  

Nevertheless, Chrupalla's comments are arguably helping to sow mistrust in the electoral process, especially among voters of his party. 

'Gateway' for conspiracy theories 

It's not the only theory that is being linked to these claims about postal ballots. 

Aiko Wagner described them as a "gateway" for conspiracy theories, as people can believe that something is being manipulated behind the scenes. 

Wagner said they can fuel narratives such as there being "machinations of which the normal citizen is unaware" or "corrupt political elites that are betraying the true people." 

Daniel Hellmann added another element –namely that many conspiracy theories have a kernel of truth from which a specific worldview is spun. 

Hellmann says the kernel of truth in postal ballots is that it's more difficult than when people go to the polling station to ensure they're voting in secret. 

This doesn't mean postal ballots are being structurally manipulated, but this kernel of truth is being used –as in the case of old people’s homes– to fuel doubts about a wider political process. 

A political process that may be often questioned by right-wing populist parties, but is defended by most members of society as a core element of today's democracy. Despite these criticisms. Or even also because of them. 

Edited by Silja Thoms