EU foreign policy: Which countries dominate the agenda?

The European Union (EU) has been on a mission to become more geopolitical and style itself as the partner of choice for the so-called Global South in the past five years. But with EU elections approaching, analysis by DW's data team shows members of the European Parliament have paid little attention to most countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America in their speeches since 2019, as global conflicts and competition have kept the focus on Ukraine, Russia and China.

Countries including Turkey, Syria, Iran, Belarus and India have gotten some airtime in the parliament's chamber — though none were featured in more than 3% of speeches. But almost no nation in Africa, Oceania or Central and South America made the top 10 list of those most cited — even when EU member states, Ukraine and global heavyweights China, Russia and the United States (US) were excluded from the count.

Given the Parliament's role in crafting laws for EU citizens, most debate inside its chamber centers on member states themselves. But what about the rest of the world? Using AI, DW analyzed verbatim reports of around 60,000 speeches made by lawmakers during monthly plenary meetings between 2019 and 2024 to find out. 

Which countries did EU lawmakers talk about most?

There are more than 700 elected members of the European Parliament, each entitled to speak during monthly plenary sittings.

Unsurprisingly, in the past five years, Ukraine and Russia have been the most talked-about states, mentioned in 9.4% and 7.5% of speeches respectively. China comes third, mentioned in around one in every 20 speeches.

Turkey and the US are tied at 2.6%, followed by Israel (1.9%), Iran (1.5%), Belarus (1.3%) and Syria (1.2%).

India, the world’s largest democracy, was mentioned in around 450, or 0.8% of speeches. Libya — a country involved in the bloc's controversial bid to curb irregular migration — was discussed in 0.7% of parliamentary interventions.

What were they talking about?

With the help of AI, DW's analysis team broke down each of the 60,000 speeches and interventions into a category of topics. According to the system, democracy and governance, economy and finance, human rights, and war and security were parliamentarians' favorite talking points.

This figure changed depending on the state of the world. Though health — an area where the EU has little decision-making power — was the least discussed topic overall, it shot to the fore during the COVID-19 pandemic. Discussions on war and conflict spiked after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and have remained higher ever since.

The focus of legislators also varied depending on which country they were talking about. While 36% of all speeches focused on human rights and freedoms, the topic came up in 74% of speeches mentioning Afghanistan. The country returned to Taliban rule after a chaotic Western withdrawal in 2021.

India mentioned in speeches about health, environment and economy

Half of all speeches mentioning India focused on the economy and the country was also disproportionately mentioned in interventions about the environment and health. Health-focused speeches often centered on fears of EU dependencies on medication produced in India, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Belarus appeared very frequently in speeches about democracy, with the EU denouncing alleged electoral fraud in the country in 2020. About 83% of speeches mentioning Israel, meanwhile, focused on security. Mentions of Israel spiked after the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and the ensuing Israeli bombardment of Gaza. Still, the country was mentioned far less than Russia or Ukraine.

For DW's analysis, it was possible to class speeches into more than one category. Though errors are possible using AI text classification, DW's data team manually checked a selection of and found it to be sufficiently accurate. You can read more about the methodology here.

European Parliament limited in foreign policy power

Elected EU lawmakers have limited power over foreign policy, which remains firmly in the hands of the bloc's member states. However, the European Parliament's support or condemnation of individual states' policies often makes headlines abroad and foreign powers often compete for influence in the chamber.

When the European Parliament voted to brand Russia a "state sponsor of terrorism" in 2022 the institution's website was swiftly targeted in a cyber attack. And several EU lawmakers have been sanctioned by China after criticizing the country's treatment of its Uighur minority.

But the data shows that some parts of the world struggle to grab the attention of the EU's only directly elected body. With the eyes of representatives set on Europe and its surroundings, there is often little space for deep discussion on countries further afield. Elections this June will usher in a new set of parliamentarians with new goals — and there will likely be a fresh push to engage more beyond the bloc's borders.

Edited by: Gianna Grün & Anne Thomas

 

Data, code and methodology behind this story can be found in this github repository: https://github.com/dw-data/eu-parliament-llm
More data-driven stories by DW can be found here.