EU calls for deescalation after Iran attacks Israel

"I condemn the broadening of the Middle East conflict, with escalation after escalation. This must stop. We absolutely need a cease-fire," said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres after Iran's missile attack on Israel.

Guterres appealed to all parties involved in this conflict — Iran, the Lebanese terrorist militia Hezbollah, the terrorist Palestinian Hamas as well as Israel — to stop fighting.

In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday he was barring Guterres from entering the country over what he described as the UN chief diplomat's failure to specifically condemn Iran over the attack.

On Tuesday night, the European Union and many European leaders expressed similar dismay over the fighting. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz strongly condemned Iran's move to fire 181 ballistic missiles at Israel, saying "Iran is risking a conflagration, this must be prevented."

Scholz called for Hezbollah and Iran to immediately stop their attacks on Israel, so that refugees from Lebanon's south and Israel's north may return to their homes.

Looming escalation

EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell, currently in Mexico, said the bloc remained obligated to protecting Israel's security. At the same time, he called on all parties involved, including Israel, to exercise restraint.

The Israeli government has said Iran's recent missile attack on Tuesday evening, which was largely thwarted, would have consequences, and it has not ruled out a counterattack. But recent events in the Middle East could lead to an "uncontrollable regional escalation," Borrell warned on X.

The EU and US have already imposed a series of sanctions on Iran for supplying arms to Russia, for human rights violations and for its suspected nuclear weapons program. No further sanctions have been announced to date.

Within the EU, there is no single, uniform view on what position to take regarding the Middle East conflict. Some EU states such as Ireland, Belgium and Spain lean more toward the Palestinian side, while other countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic are unreservedly in support of Israel.

Biden instructs US forces to help defend Israel

Western admonitions and appeals for restraint have had little impact on the Middle East. Similar reactions followed Iran's first missile strike against Israel in April and its limited counterattack, with warnings that fighting could escalate. At the time, G7 foreign ministers were gathered in Capri, Italy, and issued a joint statement on the attack.

Following the latest Iranian missile salvo, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who currently chairs the G7 group, invited her colleagues to a video conference on Wednesday. Meloni said she wanted to discuss how the G7 states could support a cease-fire in southern Lebanon in accordance with a 2006 UN resolution designed to end hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said that French troops and naval units in the Middle East have been mobilized to help contain Iran. Macron did not, however, go into any details.

US President Joe Biden said he had instructed American forces help defend Israel against the Iranian missile attacks. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, said his country stands by Israel, calling Iran's attacks "unacceptable."

Russia, considered an ally of Iran and a recipient of Iranian combat drones which it uses to wage war on Ukraine, has called on all parties to stop escalating the conflict.

"We are in contact with all parties in this conflict. We maintain these contacts and demand restraint from all sides," said Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What could Israel's response look like?

Europe is now waiting to see whether and how Israel will react to the latest Iranian missile attack. Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert with the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told DW he predicts Israel will retaliate by attacking targets in Iran and military infrastructure. He thinks Israel has the military edge, telling DW "the chances of a successful interception [of Israeli missiles] by the Islamic Republic of Iran are close to zero."

Taleblu said Israeli warplanes could bypass Iran's Russian-supplied air defense systems. Israel's counterattack could involve strikes against Iran's proxy militias in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen as well as intelligence operations and targeted killings.

"We are already in a kind of war in this region," Taleblu told DW. "It just depends on how you define the intensity, cruelty and geographical radius of this war."

This article was originally written in German.