End of an era? Europe's shaky security strategy for Ukraine

Expert observers are calling it an end of an era: By all appearances, the US, at least under the administration of President Donald Trump, has turned its back on Ukraine — and possibly the rest of Europe.

After having sidelined European partners last week in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on conditions to end the war in Ukraine, and alienating partners at the recent Munich Security Conference, on Wednesday, Trump fired off a social media post slamming his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a "dictator" for postponing elections and blaming his country for Russia's war of aggression. 

Kyiv's allies were quick to point out that the ongoing Russian invasion made nation-wide polling, set for April 2024, impracticable, while Zelenskyy himself retorted that Trump had absorbed Russian disinformation.

But the spat is about more than harsh words. Three years into the full-scale invasion, Trump is pushing Zelenskyy to end the war on terms that Kyiv had long rejected as unacceptable. While little of Trump's agreements with Putin are known, it appears that Ukraine would be expected to concede territory currently occupied by Russia, and remain outside of the NATO military alliance.

The US president also demanded Ukraine hand over billions worth of critical raw material in exchange for Washington's continued military and financial support.

On Thursday, the US envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg was in Kyiv, one day after US and Russian officials met in Riyadh to discuss how to end the war — without Ukraine, and without European partners.

EU forced to consider worst-case scenario

Now, the European Union (EU) seems to be waking up to its worst nightmare, as the US reduces the military protection which for decades has underwritten the security of the European continent.

"A forced capitulation of Ukraine would mean a capitulation of the whole community of the West. With all the consequences of this fact. And let no one pretend that they don't see this," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X.

Having been cut out from negotiations that will — directly or indirectly — affect their security, European officials are asking themselves what they would do if an emboldened Putin were to attack another European state after claiming victory in Ukraine — especially a NATO member state.

Countries belonging to the military alliance are bound to defend one another in the case of an attack, meaning that in the worst case, Europe could become embroiled in a war between Russia and NATO allies.

'Exactly what he promised'

European officials have long feared that a second term for Trump in the White House would strain European security.

"While Trump may be erratic and chaotic in how he is rolling out his agendas, at the strategic level he is doing pretty much exactly what he promised," European Council on Foreign Relations expert Nick Witney wrote on Thursday.

"His approach to the war in Ukraine, as so brutally elaborated in recent days, is entirely consistent with his past behaviors and pronouncements," the expert added.

And when it comes to US disengagement, Benjamin Tallis of the Democratic Strategy Institute told DW on Thursday that the writing had already been on the wall. "We've been seeing the end of the old world order for quite a long time," he said.

"Hopefully this is the moment when Europe finally gets its act together, because it's clear that there is not a lot going on strategically in the US," he added, referring to what he described as Trump's erratic outbursts in recent days.

"Despite the endless talk of wake-up calls, we haven't seen most of our [European] leaders being serious about doing something about it," he said. "Now, it seems that the fire has really been lit," Tallis added, pointing to emergency talks convened by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Monday. 

"Europe has one mission. To get strong, and get strong fast."

Will there be an EU peacekeeping force?

As well as long-term discussions about increased defense spending and greater "strategic autonomy," the phrase Europe uses to describe lessening its dependence on the US, one short-term consideration is whether Europe would put boots on the ground in Ukraine to protect a potential peace settlement, or deter another Russia attack in the future.

The US made clear it would not be prepared to do so, and there is increasing discussion of forming a "coalition of the willing" among European countries.

The UK and France are leading efforts to create a European "reassurance force" of fewer than 30,000 troops, British media reported on Thursday.

But key countries like Germany, which is heading to the polls on Sunday, are non-committal. Even Poland, one of Kyiv's closest allies, has been hesitant to commit troops to Ukraine.

German elections could slow EU decisions

With Germany occupied with its own politics at a crucial moment, the UK appears to be stepping up. Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are expected for meetings in Washington next week, according to US officials.

One EU diplomat told DW on condition of anonymity that there was a sense that the EU would wait and see who their new interlocutor in Germany might be after Sunday's elections. At present, center-left German Chancellor Olaf Scholz looks most likely to be replaced by conservative Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz.

It's still unclear which parties could end up in a German governing coalition. Its makeup could have far-reaching implications for Germany's stance on Ukraine policy, with leading parties split over how this should be shaped.

Earlier this week, EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas also warned that talk about a peacekeeping force was premature.

"If we are talking about peacekeepers, then we are walking into the Russian trap because they don't want peace," she told the European news website Euractiv on Tuesday. "First, we have to put pressure on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin so he wants to move towards peace."

Rose Birchard and Anchal Vohra contributed to this story.

Edited by: Maren Sass