Electing A Martyr

The killing of the controversial anti-immigration politician Pim Fortuyn has shocked a country known for its peaceful and tolerant stance. But with general elections just over a week away, Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok needed to keep his cool.

He faced a difficult decision: should the elections be postponed? Following talks with political leaders, including those of Fortuyn's right-wing party, Kok said on Tuesday that the general election will go ahead as planned on May 15.

Fortuyn's party spokesman, Mat Herben, said their right-wing populist group, the "Pim Fortuyn List", had favored holding the election as scheduled. "Pim loved electoral democracy, so we too wanted the elections to go ahead on May 15," he said.

Sympathy votes

Opinion polls in recent weeks had seen Fortuyn snapping at the heels and sometimes even overtaking established parties in popularity. A poll released last week suggested that one in five Dutch wanted his party in government.

Commentators said "Lijst Pim Fortuyn" (LPF) might now win a big sympathy vote. But they are skeptical about its long-term political prospects without its charismatic, media-savvy leader.

"In the short term it will survive, because of the foundations Pim Fortuyn built," said Gerrit Hagelstein, associate professor of public administration at Utrecht University. "But in the longer term, the party is not enough of a political party and does not have enough widespread support. Ninety percent of the party was Pim Fortuyn, maybe more."

Since LPF is also such a young party, a further issue on many observers’ minds is that many in the group have very little political experience.

Since the government has decided to go ahead with the elections next week, Fortuyn’s name can no longer be removed from the ballot. The result could be a dead man winning as much as 15 percent of the vote.

This would put LPF on course to form a center-right coalition with the main opposition Christian Democrats (CDA) and VVD liberals.

The Dutch daily Volkskrant in The Hague writes that the shock from Fortuyn’s death could influence voter behavior. "Grief and a sense of honor could become more important than normal political considerations," the paper comments.

Britain’s The Times shares this view. "An assassination rarely kills an idea: Pim Fortuyn will now become a martyr in the eyes of those who shared his worries about immigration into an already overcrowded country," the London daily writes.

Implications for Europe

Fortuyn's swift rise in popularity mirrored gains made by anti-immigration parties in other European countries. Most recently, France’s far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen was finally defeated in a presidential election run-off, but only after winning the support of one in five French voters.

Fortuyn denied kinship with Le Pen, but his rhetoric stoked tensions in a small country where immigrants of non-Western origin account for some 10 percent of the population.

These tensions could now rise further – and not only in the Netherlands. Issues such as immigration, race relations and nationalism have come to the center of the political debate in many parts of Europe, such as France, Denmark and Austria.