Bundesliga picks
October 28, 2011Congratulations to Christopher (@TheSpareWheel) in Morocco, our match day 10 guest, who pulled off the amazing feat of scoring more than one point to beat us. In fact, Christopher scored five, putting the guest challengers right back on level-pegging terms with the (cough) experts (cough). So, peering cautiously from the hole in the ground into which we retired in shame last Sunday, we look ahead to a smashing set of fixtures on match day 11.
This week's challenger: T. Mills (@GorillaMzungu) in Toronto
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Friday, October 28
Freiburg - Leverkusen
Freiburg's ongoing implosion is now a little frightening, with seven defeats in their first ten Bundesliga games. It's probably understandable that they aren't scoring many goals, seeing as how their only threat is Papiss Demba Cisse, but the leaky defense, which has shipped more goals than anyone else, is a more complicated issue. Leverkusen are suffering their own slump after their hopes were raised with a good-ish start to the season, and they're known for some shocking lapses (beaten by Dresden in the first round of the Cup and slaughtered at home to Cologne, to name but two). Still, they should have enough about them to see off this season's whipping boys.
DW prediction: Leverkusen 3-1
Guest prediction: Leverkusen 2-1
Saturday, October 29
Bayern Munich - Nuremberg
The sheer power of the Bayern juggernaut surely won't let last week's bump in the road slow down its serene charge to the title. Especially not against Bavarian rivals Nuremberg, who last recorded a victory in Munich in the heyday of grunge, acne and Lothar Matthäus, or 1992 as it's more widely known. In fact, it's been four years since the Nurembergers won a Bavarian derby at all. Still, they do have a reasonably parsimonious defense for a bottom-half side, so maybe they could eke out a draw? Nah, come off it.
DW prediction: Bayern 2-0
Guest prediction: Bayern 3-0
Schalke - Hoffenheim
This could be a battle royal, with both sides showing top-notch scrapping qualities to record 1-0 victories last week. But Schalke's rise to third place looks more impressive overall, and on paper, they're easily the better side, second only to Bayern in home form. With the old favorite Huub Stevens back in charge for a second spell, it's like Schalke have re-discovered the charms of a long-suffering wife after a string of ill-fated flings with other coaches over the intervening years. Hoffenheim, for their part, recovered from an autumn slump last week, but could struggle against the in-form Royal Blues.
DW prediction: Schalke 2-1
Guest prediction: Schalke 2-0
Stuttgart - Dortmund
This should be a cracker - these are two explosive, in-form sides with a point to prove. Having successfully exorcised the demons of their European failure by using Cologne as a handy therapeutic punching bag, Dortmund will want to make sure they stay in touch with Bayern this week. After all, for all their turbo-charged exploits to start the season, the Bavarians are only three points clear. Stuttgart will be hoping the champions have got it out of their system now, and they're quietly gaining some good momentum of their own, having won four of their last six - and made light work of Frankfurt in the DFB Cup in mid-week. They will certainly fancy their chances with home advantage.
DW prediction: Stuttgart 3-2
Guest prediction: Draw 1-1
Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin
This match does not look so promising. That rectangular net thing is now but a foggy memory for Hertha, who have gone four whole hours without scoring in the league. Their midweek 3-0 drubbing of Rot-Weiss Essen was promising…leaving out the fact that Essen is a Regionalliga side that came into the match on a four-match losing slide. Wolfsburg meanwhile, are, with all due respect, an unpredictable rabble who alternate draws, defeats and scrappy wins with irregular regularity. Coach Felix Magath has become an inveterate tinkerer in his old age, rotating his team and formation almost every week. Still, they have won three of their last four home games, and injury issues are - apart from the long-term ones - not a factor.
DW prediction: Wolfsburg 1-0
Guest prediction: Draw 1-1
Mönchengladbach - Hanover
If we learned one thing last week, it's that everyone hates playing Hanover. Mirko Slomka's men have honed efficient counter-attacking to a devastating art-form. What they cannot seem to do very well is win away - where they have the third-worst record in the league. Plus, Gladbach are one of only two teams still unbeaten at home, and are an even more efficient machine than their opponents. No other side has eked so many wins (five) from so few goals (eleven). And only Bayern have a meaner defense. They must be doing something right.
DW prediction: Gladbach 1-0
Guest prediction: Gladbach 2-1
Mainz - Bremen
Not long ago, it looked like Bremen had banished their 2010/2011 blues, and were back to their old neat-passing, free-scoring ways. But after conquering second place for the first time in what seemed like ages, their form has fallen off alarmingly. Last week's draw against lowly Augsburg was an ungainly spectacle. And yet, while Bremen have been underachieving of late, Mainz would kill for their record. They haven't won since match day two - though the mid-week Cup victory over Hanover will have been a confidence-building fillip. That said, Bremen seem to have Mainz's number, losing only one and winning six of their last nine meetings.
DW prediction: Draw 1-1
Guest prediction: Bremen 2-1
Sunday, October 30
Cologne - Augsburg
Before the match starts these two might succumb to their woes, put their arms around one another and indulge in some mutual ego-massaging. Cologne were on the receiving end of Dortmund's yellow tidal wave last week, while Augsburg look like they are being sucked inexorably towards relegation. But then again, the plucky top flight debutants are doing plenty of raging against the dying of the light. Last week they held on for a draw against Bremen, and beat Mainz the week before. And they have two key players who sat out their German cup match at midweek - goalkeeper Simon Jentzsch and midfielder Axel Bellinghausen - back in the line-up. Still, Cologne are the better side on paper, and with home advantage they should have enough.
DW prediction: Cologne 2-0
Guest prediction: Cologne 2-1
Hamburg - Kaiserslautern
This is another "duel in the cellar," as the Germans like to say. Hamburg have been one of this season's surprise packages, if by "surprise" you mean "surprisingly bad." Much has been said of their building a head of steam now that they’ve installed Thorsten Fink as coach, but that proof pudding has not yet set. Hamburg's defense still looks unconvincing, and is a sort of bizarro-Bayern - they are the only club in the league yet to keep a clean sheet, and they haven't won a home game. Lautern might just be bad enough to give them a break, though recent form suggests otherwise.
DW prediction: Kaiserslautern 2-1
Guest prediction: Draw 0-0
Last week's results:
DW: 1 point
Guest: Christopher (@TheSpareWheel) in Morocco: 5 points
DW total for the season: 58 points
Guest total for the season: 58 points
Three points for a correct score prediction
Two points for a correct winning margin prediction
One point for a correct winner prediction
Author: Ben Knight
Editor: Matt Hermann