DRC conflict: Pressure mounts on Rwanda as M23 seize Bukavu
February 17, 2025
In the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, the fighting between the rebel coalition led by the M23 and the Congolese army continues unabated. The militias are gaining more and more territory in the South Kivu province and captured the provincial capital of Bukavu on Sunday.
According to the Reuters news agency, the rebels saw little resistance from government forces against the unprecedented expansion of territory they controlled after years of fighting.
One Bakavu resident described the situation to DW as chaos, with looting at markets and stores. The resident lived near a military camp of the Congolese arm. He said on Saturday afternoon, fleeing soldiers set fire to their ammunition depot.
"A projectile even landed in my house and destroyed my property and equipment, the windows were broken."
On Friday, the militias announced they had taken control of the strategically important Bukavu airport, located 30 kilometers (18 miles) northwest of the city of Kavumu. Independent observers confirmed the M23's account.
Growing danger of a regional war
According to Ciaran Wrons-Passmann, Managing Director of the Ecumenical Network Central Africa in Berlin, the capture of Bukavu airport was significant.
"This would cut off the entire east from the rest of the Democratic Republic of Congo and make it more difficult to supply the Congolese army with military equipment and troops," Wrons-Passmann told DW. He said that the Congolese army leadership must now adapt to these circumstances.
Since the M23 rebels captured the border town of Goma, horrifying details of mass murders and mass rapes have emerged. According to the Congolese government, 3,000 people have been killed and around 700,000 displaced since the offensive began as the heavily armed militia rapidly advanced into the area.
The growing crisis prompted the East African Community (EAC), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) to call for an immediate ceasefire — so far without sustained success.
"It appears that the countries in the region are exerting great pressure on to withdraw," Abiol Lual Deng, a South Sudanese-American political scientist, said.
"But the region has long been at war," she added, referring to the Geneva Convention and the rules of international law enshrined therein, which have been violated for years and have led to a humanitarian catastrophe.
Deng believes it is possible that "concessions will be made to the M23 to satisfy part of Rwanda's demand for minerals from the eastern Congo." Rwanda is the world's largest exporter of coltan, which is crucial to the nation's economy.
The Congolese authorities see the M23 rebels as a proxy army of Rwanda that supports the illegal exploitation of huge mineral resources in eastern Congo, which are estimated to be worth several trillion euros.
Rwanda admits troop deployment in Congo
Until now, Rwanda's President Paul Kagame has rejected accusations by the DR Congo, the United Nations and Burundi that Rwandan troops were involved in the fighting. However, in an interview with the French magazine Jeune Afrique, he officially acknowledged the presence of his troops in the DR Congo.
"We don't have much time to put an end to this dynamic," Stephanie Wolters, an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), told DW, referring to the territorial gains made by the M23 in South Kivu.
Wolters calls for faster intervention and more consistent pressure on Rwanda, including from the international community. Congo's President Félix Tshisekedi must also be urged to negotiate. He has so far refused to do so. She emphasizes only a dialogue between DR Congo and Rwanda could overcome the acute crisis phase and perhaps prevent a major war.
This weekend, at the Munich Security Conference, Tshisekedi pointed fingers at Kagame, claiming he has attacked the DRC and violated its territorial integrity.
"We are determined to restore the integrity of our land, and we are getting there," Tshisekedi said to DW. Now, it is up to the international community "to do everything possible to prevent the conflict from spreading to the region," the president said.
However, Rwanda's Defence Minister, Juvenal Marizamunda, denies any interest in fighting against the DRC at the Munich conference.
"Rwanda has nothing to gain from an unstable DRC. On the contrary, our vision for prosperity is tied to regional stability and economic cooperation," he told DW. "The crisis in eastern DRC is a challenge for all of us in the region. Rwanda has been heavily affected with devastating human, political and economic consequences."
Burundi threatens Rwanda with war
The advance of the M23 is fueling fears of a regional war. Analyst Wrons-Passmann also sees Tshisekedi's decision to continue to rely on military action as worrying and fears a broader conflict.
An M23 attack on Bukavu near the Burundian border would mean heavy fighting with Burundian forces and possibly a direct war with Rwanda, he said.
Burundi plays a major role in the conflict. According to Wrons-Passmann, this not only has to do with the country's security interests, but Burundi is in a severe economic crisis and lacks foreign currency.
"It is, therefore, convenient that Congo is paying well for the deployment of Burundian troops."
A year ago, Burundi angrily closed its borders with Rwanda and broke off diplomatic relations, accusing its neighbor of supporting rebels in eastern Congo who were agitating against Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye.
Burundian troops were sent to fight alongside Congolese soldiers, and Burundi has reinforced its presence since the conflict escalated at the end of January.
Ndayishimiye, who came to power in 2020, is very outspoken. He has accused Rwanda's Kagame of ruthless warmongering.
"If Rwanda continues to conquer the territory of another country, I know for a fact that it will even reach Burundi," Ndayishimiye said in January at a diplomatic meeting in Bujumbura, Burndi's capital. He warned that the war would take on "a regional dimension."
Such threats have raised fears that Burundi could also be further involved in the escalation in the run-up to the June parliamentary elections.
This article was originally published in German and updated on February 17, 2025
Mimi Mefu contributed to this article
Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu