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Diplomacy Enters Final Crucial Phase

March 15, 2003

With the Security Council still deadlocked over a resolution authorizing war in Iraq, the U.S., Britain and Spain will hold a crisis summit on Sunday. More and more diplomats are pessimistic that war can be averted.

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Staunch allies -- British Prime Minister Blair with U.S. President Bush.Image: AP

In the face of strong rifts at the U.N. Security Council over the Iraq crisis, the U.S. government has announced a surprise emergency summit on Sunday in Portugal’s Azores islands.

U.S. President Bush will meet there with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, his two staunchest allies in the present crisis, to thrash out plans to get U.N. backing for a military invasion against Iraq.

Last chance for diplomacy?

White House spokesman Aril Fleischer described the meeting as a last push for diplomacy. "In an effort to pursue every last bit of diplomacy the president will depart Sunday morning for the Azores to meet Prime Minister Blair and with Prime Minister Aznar to discuss prospects for resolving the situation peacefully with diplomacy in final pursuit of a United Nations resolution," he said.

Fleischer added that the U.S. would try to seek a U.N. vote on the crucial resolution in the coming week.

America, Britian and Spain are pushing for a new resolution that foresees issuing Saddam Hussein an ultimatum of only a few days to comply with U.N. disarmament conditions.

The U.S. earlier reiterated that in the face of strong divisions within the Security Council, there was a possibility that it could lead a military offensive against Iraq without the support of the Council and on the basis of the already existing resolution 1441 alone.

Iraqi report on VX nerve gas leaves U.S. unimpressed

Iraq began destroying more banned short-range missiles on Saturday, a day after handing the United Nations a promised report on the deadly nerve gas VX and said it would supply a similar report on anthrax soon.

However the move has been dismissed by London and Washington as insufficient and called for more sweeping steps to meet U.N. demands that Baghdad scrap all its alleged chemical, biological and nuclear weapons program if it is to avoid war.

"They promised within a week we would have an explanation for where the anthrax and VX have gone. It has now been 13 days and counting and there is still no explanation," said Richard Grenell, spokesman for U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte.

Diplomats resigned to looming prospect of war

As diplomatic activity intensifies to avert a war, the British governement for the first time has said that a military invasion against Iraq seems increasingly likely.

A day before the crisis summit on the Azores islands, British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw stressed that neither President Bush nor British Prime Minister Blair had made any final decision yet. A war is not inevitable, he said. At the same time Straw told the BBC, "The prospect of military action is now much more probable and I greatly regret that."

"What we know about Saddam Hussein from all his behaviour is that he only responds to pressure and he only responds at the last minute," he added. "So there is still time for him to
comply, but time is running out."

Pressed on whether there would be another U.N. resolution
before any attack, Straw said: "I cannot say that for certain."

European Union Foreign- and Security Policy Chief, Javier Solana also said he was not really optimistic, though there was still room for diplomacy. He was speaking at a summit of EU defense ministers in Athens.

Even Britain's Armed Forces Minister, Adam Ingram expressed pessimism about avoiding a war at the Athens meeting. He said he shared the Belgian Defense Minister, André Flahaut's view that the last phase before a war had begun.

He agreed the world may be just days from a conflict. "I think that language which has been used over recent days in London would lead us to that conclusion," he said in Athens in answer to a question.

Even Chancellor Schröder doubtful of averting war

Schröder Regierungserklärung
Gerhard SchroederImage: AP

Even German Chancellor Schröder, who has infuriated the U.S. with his defiant stance against a war under any circumstances, seems to be wavering in his confidence that the Iraq crisis can be resolved peacefully.

On Friday Schröder insisted in Parliament in a state of the nation address that a peaceful disarmament of Iraq was still possible, but changed tracks on Friday evening in a radio interview when he said that chances of avoiding a war against Iraq were slim.

"I have my doubts, whether it (the efforts) can still succeed. But I can't allow myself to give in to these doubts," he said. He said it was his duty, "to mobilise all efforts together with allies to reach a peaceful disarmament."

The German leader said his government was working together with France, Russia and other countries to work on a peaceful solution to the crisis. He added, though, that ultimately, it was up to the U.S. to decide if it would refrain from attacking Iraq.

Meanwhile an unconfirmed report by the news magazine, Der Spiegel, said that Germany was willing to provide financial aid and up to 1,000 soldiers for peace missions and financial reconstruction work after a possible conflict in Iraq.

The German Foreign Ministry refused to comment on the report.

Asked what Germany was prepared to after a war, Schröder said, "Germany is always available for talks under the auspices of the United Nations. The U.N. will always be able to count on Germany. That was and will remain so."

The Chancellor rejected criticism that he failed to communicate enough with the U.S. government. He said Berlin and Washington were regularly in contact at all levels,
adding that Washington was fully aware of Germany's position on the Iraq issue.

Meanwhile Germany has "urgently" advised its citizens against all travel to Iraq and asked its nationals within the country to consider leaving.

Washington shoots down Chilean proposal

The U.S. government, which has been trying for weeks with Britain and Spain to seek a nine-vote majority on the 15-member Security Council paving the way for a war, are believed to give it one more shot over the weekend.

But despite heated arguments and apparent inducements such as Friday's move to lift U.S. sanctions on Pakistan, only one other nation, Bulgaria, has publicly declared its support so far.

With none of six undecided nations on the 15-member Security Council saying they were ready to support the U.S. stance, Washington’s earlier confidence that it was close to getting the minimum nine votes in favor of the crucial resolution, has now faded.

However the U.S. was quick in dismissing a new proposal by Security Council member Chile on Friday.

Chilean President Ricardo Lagos said the proposal, to be put forward with other Council members, would give Baghdad a maximum of three weeks to comply with five specific disarmament tasks or face the consequences, including war.

However Ari Fleischer said, "No, that’s a non-starter." It remains unclear which countries are backing the Chilean proposal.

New peace blueprint for Middle East

Meanwhile President Bush announced a new peace initiative for the Middle East in Washington on Friday. Bush said the new Middle East "roadmap" would be placed on the negotiating table as soon as the new Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas took office.

"We expect that such a Palestinian prime minister will be confirmed soon. Immediately upon confirmation, the roadmap for peace will be given to the Palestinians and the Israelis," Bush said.

Bush urged the Palestinians to renounce terrorism. At the same time he appealed to Israel to halt further settlement building in the occupied territories. "The settlement building activities must stop," he said. "The time has come, to give up deeply rooted attitudes and work for peace," he said.

Worldwide protests against war

Thousands of protestors worldwide took to the streets on Saturday to say "no" to a U.S.-led invasion against Iraq in one of the biggest anti-war demonstrations in what is seen as a final push for world leaders to realize the folly of going to war.

The protests took off in Tokyo with some 10,000 protestors and 3,000 in Bangkok, where pigeons were released over the Thai capital as a gesture of peace. Protests also took place in Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand.

Demonstrators from more than 100 U.S. cities arrived in Washington in an attempt to surround the White House and Justice Department in a "sea of humanity".

In Europe, protest marches were reported in Greece, Brussels, Italy, France, Denmark, London and Germany. In Germany, hundereds of anti-war activistis staged a sit in protest at a U.S. air base near Frankfurt that the U.S. uses to transport troops and supplies to the Gulf region. In the southern city of Nuremberg, some 4,000 protestors held hands to form a five km (three mile) "chain for peace".