Decoding China: Baerbock's bruising battle with Beijing

The EU seems set to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars, but Germany is against the move — that was the clear message coming out of  Brussels last week. The 27 EU nations held a vote on the issue, with 12 countries abstaining, five — including Germany — voting against the tariffs, and 10 EU members voting in favor of imposing them. This was enough to greenlight the tariffs. The decision is expected to go into effect by the end of November at the latest.

But Germany's resounding "No" in Brussels may have caused a row inside the ruling coalition in Berlin. According to mass-circulation Bild newspaper,   Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, from the Green Party, supported the tariffs. She allegedly wanted to send "a signal against the Chinese regime" and have Germany toughen up on China.

But Chancellor Olaf Scholz put his foot down, and Germany voted against the tariffs, despite it not changing the outcome of the vote.

Foreign Minister Baerbock is known for her harsh criticism of China. In September 2023, she described Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "dictator." Beijing responded by summoning the German ambassador and slamming Baerbock's statement as "absurd and provocative."

Tough road to Beijing

This week, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported that Baerbock was set to travel to China "in the coming days." Sources in Berlin say the timing of the trip is still being decided. It is clear, however, that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently met Baerbock at a UN session in New York, and invited her to visit Beijing "whenever it suits you best."

At the end of September, one of the top diplomats of the Chinese Communist Party, Liu Jianchao, traveled to Berlin, where he met with senior members of Germany's ruling coalition, and the main opposition Christian Democrats (CDU). However, Liu did not meet any Green Party representatives, despite the Greens also being part of Germany's ruling coalition.

Was this a deliberate snub? After all, it was Green Party politician Baerbock who presented Germany's new China strategy in 2023, which describes China as a "partner, competitor and rival."

"We should not hide our light under a bushel," Baerbock said at the time, referencing a Bible verse to indicate one is allowed to show one's goodness and strength to others.

"Together, in the EU, we have an incredibly strong tool, namely our European single market," she added.

Eva Seiwert from the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) says Germany's Green Party stance is in line with the prevailing attitude in the EU.

"Overall, the Greens are more focused on the rivalry aspect compared to other coalition parties," Seiwert told DW. "The Greens insist that the EU acts as a single actor in its dealings with China, but also in its foreign policy in general."

Freedom of navigation and the threat of trade war

There have been plenty of sparks flying lately between Berlin and Beijing. In mid-September, Germany sent two war ships through the Taiwan Strait, which separates the Chinese mainland from Taiwan.

Beijing sees the self-ruled, democratic island as a Chinese province, and insists the strait is part of Chinese territorial waters.

Experts view the deployment of warships as a statement against China's increasingly aggressive attitude in the Indo-Pacific. The head of the Munich Security Conference Christoph Heusgen commented that Germany must stand against this and not submit to the "might makes right" perspective, or others will see it as precedent and follow along in Beijing's footsteps elsewhere.

But China has its own cards to play. This Tuesday, Beijing flexed its economic muscle and announced extra tariffs on European brandy, ordering import companies to pay additional fees of 30.6% to 39% to Chinese customs.

This appears to be another salvo in the bitter trade war between China and the EU. The punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars are expected to be up to 35.3% of the price and were pushed by winemaking nations like France and Italy. Both sides are currently disputing the others' tariffs before the World Trade Organization.

Germany afraid of 'tariff spiral'

Last month, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck — also from the Green Party — warned against the "tariff spiral" while talking to his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao in Berlin.

"We want to avoid a trade conflict with a tariff spiral, that ultimately damages both sides, at all costs," Habeck said. "The EU Commission and China should make every effort to negotiate a solution."

MERICS expert Seiwert says there are strategic reasons for China to treat the Greens slightly differently than its coalition partners.

"It is useful for the Chinese government to create a bit of disunity within the German coalition. We have also seen Beijing do this in the EU; creating disunity by trying to get some states on its side and not others," she said.

While presenting Germany's China strategy in 2023, Baerbock said the document was a "mandate to act." With her upcoming trip to Beijing, Baerbock will have to live up to her three-pronged approach to China as a "rival, partner, and competitor" and harmonize it with what she describes as "value-based foreign policy."

This article was translated from German by Darko Janjevic.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

"Decoding China" is a DW series that examines Chinese positions and arguments on current international issues from a critical German and European perspective.