Where are we on countries' climate contributions?

The first week of the UN climate summit COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, is drawing to a close against a backdrop of calls for urgent action by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and warnings by climate scientists.

As the world faces into an escalating climate crisis with unprecedented storms, floods, droughts and wildfires, government climate action has been at a "three-year standstill," according to scientists from Climate Action Tracker. The independent scientific project tracks government policies and measures them against the globally agreed Paris accord goal of holding warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5C.

Argentina surprisingly leaves COP29

US President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement for the second time. And now Argentinian President and climate skeptic Javier Milei, who met with Trump on Thursday, ordered his delegates to leave the UN conference earlier this week.

Buenos Aires-based Latin America campaign director of environmental NGO 350.org Maria Victoria Emanuelli called this decision "erratic and unpredictable," adding that it could cost the country a considerable financial sum needed for climate action.

"It's difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support," said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native working as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International.

New climate goals for 2035 announced

Many heads of state and government, including from the US, France and Germany, are not attending the conference, which also offers a platform for nations to announce more ambitious climate goals. These include emissions reduction targets and how to achieve them. Countries have until February to come forward with their national targets. So far, only a few have made use of the opportunity.

The United Kingdom phased out energy from coal

The UK's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his country will aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 81% on 1990 levels by 2035.

"We are building on our reputation as a climate leader," he said at COP29, urging the other parties "to come forward with ambitious targets of their own, as we all agreed at the last COP."

Starmer, who took office in July after his center-left Labour Party won the general election, has promised to turn the country into "a clean energy superpower." Speaking in Baku, he said the UK had closed its final coal power plant in September, making it the first G7 country to phase out energy from the fossil fuel. 

Starmer's 2035 pledge was "a step in the right direction but must be seen as a floor to the level of ambition not a ceiling," Rosie Downes, head of campaigns with environmental group Friends of the Earth, said in a statement. She added that deeper and faster cuts were needed.

"With the warning signals flashing red, a planet battered by increasingly severe floods, storms and heat waves, and the election of climate denier President Trump, the need for climate leadership by the UK has never been more urgent," she said.

However, the UK's existing 2030 commitments were still way off course, she added.

Brazil is still increasing oil and gas production

Brazil, which will host next year's COP30, has also unveiled its climate target. It aims to cut emissions between 59% and 67% from 2005 levels by 2035. That equals a cut of 39% to 50% from 2019 levels, environmental NGO 350.org said. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a decrease of 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels is necessary to stay below the 1.5C threshold.

Giving a range rather than a fixed percentage figure has drawn criticism as it creates uncertainty and weakens accountability, 350.org's Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns Andreas Sieber said. "The lower range is unacceptably low, while the upper limit, though a positive step, should be seen as just the starting point," he added.

Especially in its role as COP host next year, Brazil should lead by example, said Sieber.

While the country claims its investment in the energy sector with a focus on renewable sources is placing Brazil "at the forefront of the global energy transition," analysts say the country is on track to increase oil and gas production 36% by 2035. Swiss-based research and advocacy NGO Oil Change International looked at how the "COP troika nations" Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan — who will host, hosted or are hosting the climate talks — are doing in terms of climate action.

"The UAE and Brazil rank first and third in the world in terms of oil and gas expansion approved since the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels," Oil Change International found.

United Arab Emirates is leading oil and gas expansion

In its updated targets published last week, the UAE said it was committing to achieving a 47% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2023, compared to 2019. While that was a slight improvement on the Gulf state's previous target of 40%, global civil society movement Climate Action Network called it "insufficient."

"The plan doesn't include any commitment to phase out fossil fuels or to stop the expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure," said Mohamed Kamal, member of Climate Action Network Arab World.

350.org called it a "greenwashing exercise," adding "it decided to bury its bad news on the day of the US election results." The NGO points to the glaring omission of exported emissions — the country exports most of its oil.

"The UAE now leads the world in oil and gas expansion, even after assuming the role of COP president with a mandate to transition away from fossil fuels," Sieber said. "This 'climate commitment' brazenly undermines its own credibility and COP presidential legacy."

"There can be no '1.5 degrees Celsius aligned' climate plans without explicit commitments to halt the production of fossil fuels and to stop generating energy from them," said David Knecht, co-coordinator of Climate Action Network's Ambition Working Group.

Edited by: Tamsin Walker