Concern over Belarus-China military drills, near NATO border

Belarus and China began joint anti-terrorism military drills on Monday. Dubbed Eagle Assault 2024, the 11-day exercise will see troops practice night landings, overcome water obstacles and engage in urban combat drills.

The joint exercises follow Belarus joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Eurasian political, economic and defense organization led by Russia and China.

DW asked experts in the region why Belarus needs the SCO and what the joint drills with China could mean for the region.

Fighting terrorism?

Belarus has become the 10th member of the SCO, which originally consisted of the founders China and Russia, as well as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Since the organization's founding, India, Pakistan and Iran have also joined.

At first, the SCO was intended to address border disputes between the first five members. Later, joint security issues began to take center stage. Member states regularly take part in joint anti-terrorism exercises.

Most experts agree that the SCO does not provide members with any financial or economic support. Instead, it serves as a platform for negotiations and talks.

"Various heads of state and government come together in the SCO," said Pavel Matsukevich, a researcher at the Center for New Ideas think tank, which specializes in Belarusian politics. "They can pursue bilateral talks at the sidelines of SCO summit meetings."

Russian dependency

Belarus had ties with China and India even before joining the SCO. For years, the country's second-largest trading partner after Russia was the European Union (EU).

However, Anastasia Luzgina, a researcher at the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC), said she believes Belarus' authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko has since made his country an international pariah. And "the economy has had to adapt to this new reality," she said.

Sanctions against Belarus — in part a response to fraudulent elections in 2020 and the state's human rights abuses against those protesting their outcome — have caused the nation's economy to shrink, the expert explained.

"At first, state officials turned toward Russia, but now they are looking for other markets," Luzgina said. As Belarus found it too risky to rely entirely on Russia, Minsk has been searching for alternatives should Russia fall into a recession, she added.

Luzgina also pointed out that Belarus was seeking to replace its European market with Asian partners, especially in China. She said Belarus' SCO membership is in line with this strategy.

A 'marriage of convenience'

SCO membership could also increase Belarus' chances of joining BRICS, Matsukevich said. Currently comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, the BRICS group wants to be seen as a challenger to the G7 bloc of highly industrialized countries.

"To Belarus, this is a marriage of convenience," said Matsukevich, a former diplomat. "The EU market is closed to them and access to ports is also closed to them. The country must resort to using Russian and Chinese infrastructure and pursuing trade with the third world."

He added that, in joining the SCO and cozying up to BRICS, Minsk also wants to decrease its dependence on Russia. Lukashenko apparently believes he will get something in return if he supports Russia, China or India, Matsukevich said.

Experts say China is Belarus' second-most important trading partner after Russia. "About 70% of Belarusian trade is with Russia, and about 10% goes to China," Luzgina said.

She added that China dominates that relationship. Shrinking trade ties with the EU mean Belarus has relied on Chinese machinery, cars and consumer goods while exporting potassium fertilizer — formerly sent mostly to Western countries — and food products to China.

Exercises on the Polish border

It may appear that this week's Chinese-Belarusian joint military exercises are a result of Belarus joining the SCO. But they are not the first military drills the two nations have undertaken together. These took place in 2018 in China's northeastern city of Jinan.

The countries are currently working together in Belarus' southwestern Brest, just 2.8 kilometers (1.7 miles) from the Polish border and 28 kilometers from Ukraine.

Matsukevich said Belarus' new SCO membership likely has little to do with the military exercises.

"Preparing for that takes time. It doesn't happen overnight," he said, adding that such drills always lead to tensions with neighboring countries. 

From 2016 to 2020, before popular protests began in Belarus, Minsk had maintained a dialogue with NATO and even invited observers to its maneuvers. The current exercises in Belarus are more likely to cause a stir in Russia, the expert said, because the Chinese military is involved in drills within what Russia regards as its sphere of influence. 

"I would assess this as a kind of challenge to Russian influence in this area, even though that's not how China is playing it," Matsukevich said. "These exercises are more evidence of how intensively Belarusian-Chinese relations have developed in all areas."

This article was originally published in Russian.