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China retail growth slows, agency calls for 2025 support

December 16, 2024

New Chinese economic performance indicators for November show growth but a slowdown in retail sales despite efforts to incentivize spending. Beijing is bracing for possible impacts of a second Trump term in the US.

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New BYD cars wait to be loaded onto a newly completed ro-ro ship named BYD Explorer No.1 for her maiden voyage in Yantai in east China's Shandong province Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024.
The slowing retail growth came despite China trying to encourage purchases of high-price items like carsImage: TANG KE/Avalon/Photoshot/picture alliance

Broadly positive Chinese economic data for November released on Monday also showed slower-than-expected growth of 3.3% in retail sales, much slower than in October and well adrift of the 4.6% forecast. 

The slowdown came as a surprise because Beijing has been working to boost stimulus programs and encourage consumption. Chinabraces for possible headwinds as Donald Trump returns for a second term as US president, threatening increased tariffs. 

China had implemented major online shopping promotions and government-subsidized trade-in programs boosting sales in things like cars, which were expected to buoy growth.

Markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong dipped as the news was announced on Monday morning. But by early afternoon, the Shanghai Exchange in particular had pared these losses and was back in the green, while the Hang Seng was down roughly 0.5%. 

Chinese government pledging 'moderately loose' monetary policy

China's government has been trying to show it's working to kickstart consumption and reignite the world's second-largest economy. 

Beijing last week announced new measures aimed at "lifting consumption vigorously" as part of a stimulus drive. 

But as these left investors seemingly unimpressed, officials unveiled new promises over the weekend including a bid to boost the struggling property sector and change monitoring of equity markets. 

President Xi Jinping said at the annual Central Economic Work Conference that the Chinese Communist Party would implement a "moderately loose" monetary policy, increase social financing and also reduce interest rates "at the right time." 

Military, trade: Key issues for Trump and China

Stats agency hints at tougher 2025 conditions

Despite concerns over the sluggish growth, and the more general downward trend compared to the rapid Chinese expansion achieved over the past couple of decades, Monday's figures remained robust. 

Industrial output grew 5.4% compared to the previous November, a slight increase from October and in line with predictions. 

Retail sales however dipped to 3.3% growth from 4.8% the previous month. 

A spokesperson for the National Statistics Bureau warned while presenting the data that protectionism was on the rise and the agency anticipated tougher conditions next year.

They called for more efforts to promote economic recovery in 2025.

Trump plans new tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico

msh/sri (AFP, Reuters)