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PoliticsChina

China kicks off top security forum amid global tensions

Yuchen Li in Taipei
September 12, 2024

The Beijing conference offers a chance for US-China military dialogue after the two sides resumed communication last year. But hopes of progress remain low.

https://p.dw.com/p/4kXlV
Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun stands at a podium decorated with flowers. Behind him is a row of flags.
Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun delivers a speech at the opening ceremony of Beijing Xiangshan Forum in Beijing, China September 13, 2024Image: Florence Lo/REUTERS

China kicked off its biggest military diplomacy event of the year, the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, on Thursday, with over 500 representatives from more than 90 countries gathering in the Chinese capital.

"The number and level of participants [this year] has exceeded all previous years with increasingly wider representation," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said in a briefing before the forum.

Themed "Promoting Peace for a Shared Future," the three-day forum will cover a range of issues, including security in Europe and Asia-Pacific, international rules, and the future of artificial intelligence.

This year's participants also include leaders and officials from international and regional organizations, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union, according to Chinese state media.

China to provide counter-narratives in its 'home court'

Founded in 2006, the Xiangshan Forum has long been touted by China as its answer to the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's premier security gathering in Singapore, typically attended by minister-level officials from Western countries, including the United States and its allies.

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China often faces criticism at the Shangri-La Dialogue due to the country's growing military might and actions in the disputed South China Sea, as well as its increasingly close ties with Russia despite Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Beijing has criticized Shangri-La for being "always dominated by the US and the West narratives."

The Xiangshan Forum, meanwhile, provides "an open and inclusive platform for dialogue," according to the Global Times, China's state-affiliated tabloid.

Lin Ying-Yu, an assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies in Taiwan's Tamkang University, told DW that it is worth observing whether China will use "wolf warrior diplomacy" — a confrontational diplomatic strategy — when discussing security issues at the Xiangshan Forum.

"Chinese officials must find it necessary to show a tough stance at the Shangri-La Dialogue. But if they're on their home court, do they still need to come across that way?" Lin said.

US and China prefer 'clarifying positions' to solutions

This year, the US has sent Michael Chase, the deputy assistant secretary of defense, to attend the military conference.

Beijing has touted this selection as a sign of Washington placing "unprecedented focus" on the event. However, some analysts have pointed out that Chase's rank is consistent with that of past US officials sent by the Pentagon.

Raymond Kuo, a senior political scientist specializing in East Asia at the US think tank RAND, told DW: "China is getting roughly the same background and experience level for the delegation."

He added: "I think [Chase] is the right person for this type of conference. He has a lot of experience looking at international security issues, specifically on China and Taiwan cross-strait issues."

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The forum is also taking place after the resumption of military communication between China and the US.

Three months after Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun's first meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Singapore , the two nations resumed command-level discussions, which had been suspended in 2022 after the contentious visit of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.

However, analysts are doubtful that the ongoing forum will lead to any concrete agreements between Beijing and Washington.

"The two sides are fundamentally pretty far apart," Kuo said, noting that the ongoing military communications between Beijing and Washington are more focused on "clarifying positions and red lines" rather than "trying to resolve any kind of underlying tension."

Regional security under the spotlight

Russia's participation in the forum is closely watched by Western nations.

Since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China has faced mounting criticism from the US and the European Union for not condemning Russia and refusing to impose sanctions.

It is clear that Russian officials came to the defense forum in Beijing to "bolster and tighten their relationship," Kuo said.

The event also comes as China and Russia kicked off large-scale joint military exercises this week, involving more than 400 naval vessels, at least 120 military aircraft and up to 90,000 troops.

Elizabeth Freund Larus, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global China Hub, told DW that "the timing indicates that China-Russia cooperation will continue despite Western misgivings."

On Taiwan and the South China Sea, Lin said he expected Chinese officials to make strong statements.

Over the past two years, China has sent more warplanes and naval ships around Taiwan – a self-governed island viewed by Beijing as a Chinese province.

Meanwhile, the US continues to support Taiwan with arms sales, although there are no official diplomatic ties between the two.

Tensions between China and the Philippines have also intensified in the South China Sea due to maritime confrontations in the disputed territory.

Despite previous efforts from both sides to rebuild lines of communication, a senior Beijing military official said on the sidelines of the forum on Thursday that China will "crush" any foreign incursion into its sovereign territory, including in the South China Sea, according to the AFP news agency.

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Deepening strategic partnership with Global South

Compared to the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Xiangshan Forum has a strong focus on developing countries, collectively known as the Global South.

Delegations from African and Southeast Asian nations, including Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos, are reportedly in attendance this year.

"Inviting and welcoming their participation in a grand military forum strokes a lot of egos and further consolidates Beijing's position in the Global South," Larus said, describing it as an area of the world in which China has worked "very hard" to expand its influence.

Prior to the forum, Beijing had hosted a China-Africa cooperation summit, announcing afterward that it had formed strategic partnerships with 53 out of 54 African nations, aiming to "play a greater role in safeguarding world peace and stability."

However, Kuo noted that these relationships are primarily "economic." Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping said his government will provide a further 360 billion yuan (€46 billion) in financing for Africa over the next three years, including €27 billion in loans, €10 billion in development aid and €9 billion in direct investment.

"China is still a relatively minor player when it comes to conventional weapon sales," Kuo said. "There's a question of exactly how deep it is — their security relationship to some of these Global South countries."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru