Cautious Optimism Regarding Myanmar

Since his return from Myanmar last week, Ibrahim Gambari has been doing his best to not pour oil on the fire and keep the UN Security Council appeased. His report to the UN Security Council seems to have been aimed at putting the brakes on any rash decisions by the UN ambassadors from Washington and London.

"At our suggestion, the government has already lifted the curfews put in place during the demonstrations, withdrawn all visible military presence from the streets, and, by its own account, released over 2,700 persons detained in the course of the demonstrations, including some 700 monks."

Half-full, half-empty

For Ibrahim Gambari, the glass is obviously half-full. He seems to think much has improved since his first visit after the crackdown on peaceful protests in September. The UN envoy is planning more trips to Myanmar and is putting only diplomatic pressure on the military regime, which believes that "the recent demonstrations were instigated by a minority of elements opposed to the government and supported largely from outside. The demonstrations were limited to Yangon and Mandalay, while the rest of the country remained calm."

Gambari has especially stressed the need for the release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and for more dialogue with her: "While the government has assured me that it intends to proceed with a draft of the constitution and the holding of a referendum and elections, I stress that the more clarity there is about the timing of these steps, the more credible the processes will be."

Gambari’s policy seemed to bear fruit. China’s ambassador to the UN Wang welcomed Gambari’s call for patience: "Rome was not built in one day. Sanctions will not help resolve the issue, but rather further complicate the issue."

Anglo-Saxon dissent

But the UK ambassador to the UN John Sawers reacted rather differently: "The approach of the Burmese authorities was not in line with the expectations of the Security Council."

Whereas, the US ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad welcomed the progress but pointed out that it wasn’t enough to bring about real change.

Both ambassadors condemned the new arrests and demanded the release of all members of the opposition.

Khalilzad avoided the question of whether the US and the Security Council should not react in the same way to the situation in Pakistan, by saying that it was not a comparable situation at all.