Vietnam's new president confronts turmoil

Vietnam's National Assembly recently elected Luong Cuong as the country's new president, making the military general the fourth official to fill the largely ceremonial role in 18 months.

Cuong, 67, was elected by the National Assembly to replace To Lam, who remained president even after he was formally appointed as the general secretary of the ruling Communist Party in August.

The presidency is one of Vietnam's four main political posts, with the other roles being the general secretary of the Communist Party, the prime minister of Vietnam and the chairperson of the National Assembly of Vietnam.

Cuong has been a member of the politburo, the most powerful decision-making body of the Communist Party, since 2021. Before the election, he held a key position in the party secretariat, which made him the fifth-highest ranking official in the country.

Cuong also served in Vietnam's army for over four decades.

"Luong Cuong is a career political commissar in the People's Army of Vietnam, so, while he may be a general, he's never had operational command, and is much more of a party man," Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, told DW.

Anti-graft campaign and political turmoil

In his inaugural speech, Cuong promised to strengthen the Southeast Asian nation's security and modernize its armed forces.

As president, however, he will hold little direct power in a role considered largely ceremonial. The general secretary of the ruling Communist Party is generally considered the most powerful figure in the country.

Cuong's appointment took place after months of political turmoil and the death of former party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who had dominated the country's leadership from 2011 until he died in July.

During his 13-year tenure, Trong launched a sweeping anti-corruption campaign, which targeted both business and political elites, even leading to the ouster of two presidents, Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Vo Van Thuong, and a head of parliament, Vuong Dinh Hue.

Hanh Nguyen, a research fellow at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, told DW that Lam's decision to relinquish the presidency was "meant to restore Vietnam's implicit power-sharing arrangement."

"This might lead to a calmer period of Vietnam's politics, without major disruptions," she said. "Since 2023, two presidents have resigned, a very unusual development given Vietnam's previous reputation for political stability.

Rise of military strongmen in Vietnamese politics

Nyugen Khac Giang, a researcher and visiting fellow at ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, had a similar view.

"I don't expect Cuong's appointment to have any major impact on the power balance. To Lam holds the key to the next leadership transition. This move is aimed at restoring balance between Vietnam's security and military factions ahead of the 2026 Party Congress," he said.

The new power-sharing arrangement will likely last until 2026, when all top positions will again be up for grabs as part of a regular five-year reorganization of Vietnam's political leadership.

Giang said Cuong's appointment highlights the rise of strongmen in Vietnamese politics, where three out of the four pillars are held by either police or military generals.

Cuong is from the military, Lam came from the ranks of the police, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh previously served in the Public Security Ministry.

That leaves only Tran Thanh Man, the chairman of the National Assembly, among the top four who did not come through the ranks of the military or internal security apparatus.

Cuong a 'reliable deputy' to Lam?

"The politburo is stacked with security officials or former security officials," Abuza said.

"I think that speaks to the regime's preoccupation with domestic security and staving off 'colored revolutions.' I am not expecting any major changes in personnel going forward," he added.

Critics say Cuong's appointment would expand repression in Vietnam.

Ben Swanton of The 88 Project, a group that advocates for freedom of expression in Vietnam, told the Associated Press that Cuong would be a "reliable deputy" to Lam.

"The installation of Luong Cuong as president is yet another example of the expansion of Vietnam's police state," he said.

Abuza underlined that Vietnam still operates under a shared leadership model, despite having Lam at the helm.

"[To Lam] does need Politburo and Central Committee support to get re-elected at the 14th Congress," he pointed out.

"Any more bloodletting could provoke a backlash. I would not be surprised if he tried to add 2 more allies to the Politburo before the Congress, especially those with economic experience," Abuza said. "One thing he's done very effectively is getting his allies and lieutenants into very important party positions that actually control the levers of power or serve as checks on rivals."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru