Do Stuttgart have a prayer?
May 31, 2013Even ahead of their biggest game since a Bundesliga-winning 2006/7 campaign, it's not easy to envy Stuttgart's players. A cup final is the dream of millions of children the world over, but Saturday's German Cup final against Bayern Munich could conceivably turn into a nightmare.
When the final whistle blew on Stuttgart's 2-1 semifinal win over Freiburg, a fan of the team briefly smiled, but then turned and resignedly told me and his beer glass: "Oh great, now we can lose five or six nil against Bayern in the final." Even in victory, defeat - possibly even embarrassment - loomed large.
There's no denying that the kind of rain cloud often seen over Berlin hangs over Coach Bruno Labbadia's side, but there are three considerable silver linings worth noting.
Main mission already accomplished
Stuttgart have already won the most important financial reward, a place in continental competition. As Bundesliga and Champions League winners, Bayern have no need for the Europa League berth reserved for the German Cup winners; no matter what happens on Saturday, that place will go to Stuttgart.
Furthermore, there's not very much shame in losing by four or more goals to Bayern Munich right now - just ask Barcelona. Such a thrashing would likely be attributed to Bayern's record season rather than Stuttgart's performance on the day.
Finally, as German national coach Joachim Löw said this week: "The favorite doesn't always automatically win." Löw led Stuttgart to their last German Cup triumph in 1997, but said that he was professionally bound to neutrality this year. As no German starters or squad regulars will take to the field for Stuttgart, it's fair to say Löw has other irons in the fire these days.
Past form
Bayern Munich's opening home game of the Bundesliga season was against Stuttgart. Thanks to Austrian international Martin Harnik, Stuttgart spat on the script after 25 minutes, taking the lead at the Allianz-Arena. This attack on the Bavarian bears' lair was a mistake. Bayern roared back to win 6-1, banging in all six goals in a 20-minute period of play either side of half time. In the return leg at the Mercedes-Benz Arena, Bayern won 2-0 - Thomas Müller and Mario Mandzukic found the net in both encounters.
And yet German football magazine Kicker surmised that, in the game in Stuttgart, the hosts "proved themselves an opponent on a relative eye level" for Bayern, at least for one half. Few Bundesliga sides managed to come any closer in a league season where Bayern lost once, drew four times and won their remaining 29 matches.
Attacking impetus
Bayern will miss Brazilian internationals Dante and Luiz Gustavo, called up for the Confederations Cup against the club's wishes, but coach Bruno Labbadia insisted this would make no difference to a squad with such enviable depth. He has a point, but the fact remains that Bayern's central defense is weaker without Holger Badstuber and Dante, arguably the side's first-choice pairing.
Stuttgart are not blunt up front, either. Vedad Ibisevic may not be a showy striker, but he's a poacher of the first order and an effective target man even when isolated up top. Wingers Ibrahima Traore and Martin Harnik have pace and a desire to dribble on their side.
German international of old Cacau might be available again on Saturday, but even if he's not, January acquisition Alexandru Maxim is threatening to be a solid signing. Not 20 games into his Stuttgart career, Maxim is already entrusted with all set piece duties, thanks to the Romanian's precise right peg. The attacking midfielder has shown a handful of flashes of flair, to boot, just the quality that's often required to break down better defenses.
Holding the midfield
Christian Gentner and Arthur Boka will have to raise the bar in Berlin. They will need to both contain and if possible confound Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martinez. Gentner said this week that his side's up against the best team on earth right now, and had particularly glowing words for Bayern's big-money signing Javi Martinez.
"In the really big games, he was always on point, clearing up an enormous amount of danger and also kick-starting the attack," Gentner said, adding that his defensive prowess meant he was sometimes even more important to Bayern than vice-captain Schweinsteiger.
Alongside Gentner, one of Stuttgart's more consistent outfielders this season, is a 30-year-old Ivorian who until recently was considered a left back. Drafted into midfield for the injured William Kvist earlier in the season, Boka took to his new role so well as to consign the Danish international to the bench.
Labbadia, who has had comparatively little to celebrate, recently called Boka "the pleasant surprise" of the second half of the season. Gentner, meanwhile, says he's been impressed how the 30-year-old remains "a player who is open to new ideas and who likes to take advice on board." Boka's defensive roots could prove all the more crucial against Bayern's rampant attack.
Stopping the leaks
What Stuttgart really need on Saturday is a watertight defensive showing - from a back line that allowed an above-average 55 goals this Bundesliga season. In this case, the last is not the least. Bayern's attack has only been denied once all season, by Arsenal in the Champions League - the Bavarians have found the net at least once in every other game they have played, win, lose or draw.
Still, Sven Ulreich is one of Germany's army of extremely capable keepers, while Captain Serdar Tasci should have his likely colleagues Gotoku Sakai, Cristian Molinaro and Georg Niedermeier fired up. Japanese player Sakai could need some help. He's had a rather torrid time this season - Kicker assigns him the worst average rating of regular Stuttgart starters - and Franck Ribery will seek to add another 90 miserable minutes to his scorecard on Saturday.
They say the cup has its own rules, but don't let that fool you into thinking that anarchy reigns. With fifteen crowns, Bayern Munich lead the German pack in this category, as in all others. The odds truly are against underdogs, but perhaps an upset is no less likely than the abject humiliation some Stuttgart fans fear.
Bayern have not missed a beat in their campaign to give Coach Jupp Heynckes a flawless send-off. There follows the final hurdle: and in a sense, this comparatively low jump carries the most pressure of all. The Bavarians will raise few eyebrows with a victory but they surely remember last season's humbling defeat to Dortmund.