Can Ukraine save Pokrovsk?

"We're going to Vinnytsia first," a woman boarding a train evacuating people from Pokrovsk tells Ukrainian journalists. "We have friends there but will look for our own accommodation."

Like thousands of other residents from Pokrovsk and the surrounding area, she and her family put off evacuation until the last minute. Now they have no choice — the front line is less than 10 kilometers (about 6 miles) away. Before Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, around 60,000 people lived in Pokrovsk. Now the town is clearing out.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a recent video address that the situation near Pokrovsk, where Russia has concentrated its largest forces, is "extremely difficult." On Friday, the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces reported that 58 Russian attacks near Pokrovsk had been repelled during the course of the day.

The US Institute for the Study of War confirmed this week that "Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances southeast of Pokrovsk."

Crucial supply route in danger

Pokrovsk, a logistical hub, is located at the crossroads of Ukraine's most important rail supply routes. Residents of the frontline areas call it "the road of life" without irony. It forms the backbone of the Ukrainian defense supply line from Vuhledar to the north of the Donetsk region, Colonel Markus Reisner, an Austrian army officer, military historian, and head of the research department at the Theresien Military Academy in Vienna, told DW.

The rapid advance of Russian troops in this area became possible after Avdiivka fell, he said. The Donbas city, some 25 kilometers east of Pokrovsk, was captured by Russian forces in February. 

Avdiivka was the fortress that was supposed to protect towns, railroad lines and roads in western Ukraine. Since February, Pokrovsk has taken over this function. But now that the Russians have broken through two lines of defense, they are closing in on this last, albeit most heavily defended, line, Reisner said.

The current military situation around Pokrovsk is complex. This is partly because the Russian army does not have to take control of the city itself to damage the hub. As soon as it reaches the outskirts, Ukrainian supply routes will be an easy target for Russian artillery.

There is no doubt that the Russian forces will endeavor to raze the city and its logistics to the ground, Gustav Gressel, a Berlin-based military expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW. The worst possible scenario beyond the capture of Pokrovsk would be a complete Russian occupation of the Donetsk region, he added.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces could still block their ground corridors even if Russian troops reach the Pokrovsk line, Mykhailo Samus, Director for International Affairs at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies in Kyiv, told DW.

How the Kursk offensive might influence tactics

Many of the brigades that could reinforce the defense of difficult sections of the front in Ukraine are currently tied up in the Kursk operationin Russia.

According to Kyiv, around 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory and more than 100 villages have been brought under Ukrainian control. The Kursk offensive is part of a larger plan for Ukraine's victory, Zelenskyy said at a press conference on Tuesday.

If one of its goals was forcing Russia to move a critical mass of troops from eastern Ukraine towards Kursk, then this goal has not yet been achieved, Reisner said.

"Unfortunately, the Kursk offensive has no direct and big impact actually on the operations of the Russians in the Donbas region," he added.

The Kremlin has only moved some of the experienced troops previously deployed in the Donbas to the Kursk region. According to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, this involves around 30,000 soldiers.

The ECFR's Gressel pointed out that the Kursk offensive has not yet exhausted its potential.

"Yes, Kursk is a gamble," he said. "It is an operation that comes with significant military risks. But the problem is if you look into all other options, they also contain significant political risk," including the US elections in November, along with the debate about cutting German aid to Ukraine and timely arms deliveries.

Samus took a calmer view, turning his attention away from the Kursk offensive to the bigger picture. It is necessary to form a southern flank in the area to slow the advance of Russian troops, he said. The further the Ukrainian offensive progresses, the more the Kremlin will be forced to withdraw resources from Ukraine and move them to Kursk.

"They are throwing all available forces at Pokrovsk to achieve a certain propaganda effect," he said. "They want to take Pokrovsk and portray that as a victory of the year—and then regroup and try to send reserves to the Kursk region."

This article was originally published in German.