Can India navigate a China-dominated BRICS?

As leaders prepare for the BRICS summit in the southwestern Russian city of Kazan later this month, India appears to have a unique position within the bloc.

BRICS used to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but the group expanded in January 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

On the one side are China, Russia and Iran, which have expressed anti-Western positions. In contrast, other members like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt maintain a delicate balance between their Western partnerships and strong economic ties with China.

For example, all BRICS member countries except India and Brazil are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Even Brazil, which is not officially part of the BRI, is being courted by Beijing, which buys around one-third of Brazilian exports.

India, however, is the only BRICS member with growing strategic ties with the West and an increasingly tense relationship with China.

The India-China rivalry is mainly due to simmering tensions along the de facto border between the Asian giants, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which India claims is 3,488 kilometers (2,167 miles) long and China says is shorter.

How should India navigate BRICS for its benefit?

India is on track to become the world's third-largest economy, behind the United States and China.

"South Africa and Brazil are struggling economies today. So contours within the original five have also changed," said Harsh Pant, vice president of the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank.

"The entry of the new actors is making it further chaotic," Pant told DW, adding that the BRICS agenda is shifting toward extensive discussions without producing significant outcomes.

For India, which is now part of strategic alliances with the West to counter China in the Indo-Pacific — such as the "Quad" grouping of the US, Japan, Australia and India — "the challenge is what do you do with a platform like BRICS because there are contradictions that are quite evident and I don't think they can be concealed," Pant said.

Sreeram Chaulia, dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs, believes that the bloc's nature is transitioning.

"Had this expansion not happened, it was just a talking shop and didn't have much value in terms of strategic or economic gains for India. But now that the expansion has happened, there is a contest and we don't want to cede this space to China," he told DW.

The nations in the expanded BRICS bloc account for over 37% of global GDP — more than double that of the EU.

Countering China

China's bid to expand the original five BRICS countries to a larger circle has been seen, particularly by the European Union and the United States, as a quest for greater global influence.

"China is definitely looking at BRICS+ as a vehicle to shoot at the West and that is something they have been trying. But in this round of expansion, China did not get its full say," said Chaulia.

More recently, China also backed Pakistan's application to join BRICS which was quickly supported by Russia. However, experts say that India's arch enemy has little to no chances of being accepted within the group.

"Highly indebted countries which have been bailed out by the IMF time and again, what will they contribute to BRICS? It will become a club of beggars instead of a club of those who can help others," Chaulia said.

"I think BRICS is going to be contested and it's not going to be easy for China to steer or dominate the group but it does have a lot of bargaining chips," he said.

China is the world's largest lender, with half its lending commitments in developing nations, according to research from Stanford University.

While India's economy is roughly a fifth of the size of China's, it is the fastest-growing large economy with the largest youth population in the world.

The upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan is likely to decide on a mechanism for including more new partners — a point India has been keenly driving forward.

Courting Russia

Another point of focus for India is Russia. New Delhi has deep defense and technological ties with Moscow and sees the need to balance Beijing's influence there, some experts have said.

"China has given Russia a bulwark against the West which India is in no position to give, nor would it like to give," Pant said. "The challenge for India here is to maintain a relationship with Russia that serves its basic interest, be it defense, Central Asia or energy."

That said, Rahul Chhabra, former secretary of economic relations at India's Ministry of External Affairs, suggested that Russia may not always align with China.

"China is not a blind spot for Russia, they have their issues with them which may not come into play every time but they're there," Chhabra said.

Another chance at leadership

The BRICS bloc cannot be viewed in isolation from the other platforms available to India, according to Chhabra, who was present at the 2010 BRICS summit when South Africa was added to the fold.

He said the new expansion also gives India a platform to further its economic interests.

Chhabra emphasized that BRICS is unique in encompassing both major petroleum producers and consumers.

"With Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE now in the mix, some 40% of oil trade is part of that group," he said, adding that even OPEC is just a group of producers.

"If they manage to use BRICS pay and other mechanisms to settle accounts, it will have a huge impact," Chhabra said, speaking of the pending discussion on de-dollarization within the bloc.

"Sure it will benefit China but it will also benefit us [India]."

India is currently deeply dependent on Russia and Iran for its energy needs.

Chhabra reiterated that every platform is important in a multipolar world where India is looking out for its own interests. "And this is a platform where we are setting the rules as part of the original five," he said.

"This is a plain canvas, wherever you draw on it is what you can make of it."

Edited by: Keith Walker