Can Georgia still find a way out of its crisis?

For Georgian independent political scientist Gela Vasadze, the country's current situation can be best summarized as lost in a crisis.

"We are seeing a political, social, economic and moral crisis caused by the government," he told DW.

Tens of thousands of Georgians have protested across the country for weeks. The first wave of demonstrations was aimed against the results of the parliamentary elections held in late October.

In that election, the ruling Georgian Dream party won a parliamentary majority. The opposition, however, said the vote was rigged.

Last weekend saw the beginning of a new wave of protests directed against the election of the new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili.

For the first time, the president was not directly elected by the people but by a parliamentary commission. Georgian Dream has a majority in this commission, which the opposition considers illegitimate.

Incumbent President Salome Zourabichvili, whose term expires on December 29, is spearheading the protests and said she will not vacate the presidential palace for a successor she claimed was unlawfully chosen.

When the will of the people is not enough

Meanwhile, despite the tenacity of the protesters, political conditions have not changed, and Georgian Dream continues to consolidate its power.

Political scientist Vasadze listed two reasons for this situation: a harsh crackdown by authorities and a lack of institutional support for protesters. 

"We are seeing strong reactions from society, but no political process because it is not the opposition that is fighting but the active part of the civil society," he said.

The will of the people is not enough to change the status quo, he explained: "Opposition politicians know this, but they don't know what to do next. They want new elections, but they don't know how to get there. Nobody sees a real mechanism to change the balance of power."

Korneli Kakachia from the Georgian Institute for Foreign Policy in Tbilisi echoed that view, telling DW, "The situation is very fragile." 

No one knows what could happen on December 29 when the new president is inaugurated and the current head of state refuses to leave office, he said.

Georgia's three future scenarios

Kakachia said he currently sees three scenarios for Georgia's future.

"If nothing changes, Georgia will become similar to Serbia," he said, referring to the government in Belgrade, which is officially aiming to join the European Union but at the same time contradicts itself with its Russia-friendly policies.

Kakachia called the second scenario "worse" as it would involve the "Belarusization of Georgia." In that scenario, the government would crush protests — as occurred in Belarus after the 2020 presidential election.

"This could result in more isolation and more authoritarianism than it did in Belarus," he said.

The third scenario would resemble a new  "Rose Revolution," according to Kakachia. In 2003, young Georgian reformist politicians organized peaceful protests under the slogan "Roses instead of bullets for the enemies."

The revolution was bloodless and resulted in a non-violent change of government.

According to Kakachia, the prerequisite for this was the government bowing to pressure from the streets.

"But that is not on the cards this time," he added.

Such a scenario also harbors risks, including a potential deterioration in relations with Russia. Kakachia said he believes Moscow would do anything it could to harm Georgia through economic embargoes or by interfering in the new government's work.

Is December 29 the last chance?

Renata Skardziute-Kereselidze from the Georgian Institute of Politics think tank in Tbilisi said she still sees a chance for Georgia's pro-EU forces.

She said she believes that protesters are preparing for "a culmination of the protests" on December 29.

"We have observed that the protests have become increasingly diverse and have spread beyond the capital, Tbilisi, to other parts of the country," she told DW. "Now it depends on the support of the EU and the US, which is why there is currently a race for the attention of the world."

The opposition has found it much harder lately to make itself heard as it is now operating more underground, she explained.

Also, many Georgians who voted for Georgian Dream fear their country's situation could develop like Ukraine's in 2014.

Back then, people in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, protested for months against the ruling pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych.

In the end, Yanukovych was toppled, but the protests on Maidan Square ended violently.

Supporters of the Georgian Dream party also believe that only the ruling party could prevent a potential war with Russia.

The party and, especially, its founder, the billionaire and ex-prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, are considered Russia-friendly. 

Peace with Russia was the party's main election promise.

This article was originally published in German.