Beijing's Role in the Myanmar Crisis

The situation in Myanmar is coming to a boiling point -- as expected, the first deaths and casualties have occurred. Arrests are now the order of the day. In capitals across the world and at the United Nations, the calls for counter-measures are getting louder.

But the calls also betray a certain helplessness on the part of the West which does not seem sure about how to react to the crisis.

"Myanmar has been isolated by the West, by the US for example, which considers it a pariah state," explained Marco Bünte, a Myanmar expert at the Hamburg Institute for Asian Studies.

"The whole international community has imposed sanctions on Myanmar. There is an arms embargo, and aid organisations, such as the World Bank, are restricted in their work.

China and India

"The only contact with the outside is with Asia -- China, India and ASEAN to a certain extent. ASEAN is having a tough time. But China is a great power which in the past has offered a protective hand to Myanmar," Bünte said.

Some opposition parties in Myanmar see China as having a mitigating influence on the regime. "China, Burma's protector, is now concentrating on the 2008 Olympic Games and there is, therefore, pressure on Myanmar coming from the West and the East," explained one anonymous opposition leader in Thai exile.

"The Burma regime has no scruples to use violence against the monks and the people, who want democracy in their country but it will listen to China," he added.

Short-lived hopes

However, these hopes have been short-lived. The only reason that the hope of the Myanmar opposition that China could yield influence on Myanmar turned out to be an illusion in next to no time was not the fact that the Beijing government made rapid use of its standard formulation that China does not interfere in the internal matters of other countries, but rather because of the power-games involved.

"There's a race for influence in Myanmar," explained Bünte. "Both Indian and Chinese diplomats have been seeking stronger contacts with the military regime over the past few years in order to spread their influence in Southeast Asia."

Much at stake

For China, there's much at stake in Myanmar -- a monitoring station for the Chinese navy to listen in on India, as well as a potential oil pipeline going through Myanmar with which China hopes to get rid of its dependence on the Strait of Malakka between Indonesia and Malaysia.

And, according to Bünte, there's another reason why Beijing is reluctant to vex Myanmar:

"One shouldn't forget that it's a border region with a very long border. This means the developments in Myanmar always have an influence on the region and the bordering Yunan province."

"So stability in Myanmar is of utmost importance for China. I think that this is one reason why China is not exercising much pressure on the military regime because it's a guarantee of stability for the country."