Argentina's surprise election result leads to run-off

When the first results of the presidential primary and parliamentary elections were released at 9 p.m. on Sunday, many anxious Argentines were relieved to find that Economy Minister Sergio Massa had collected 36.6% — a plurality — of the 27 million votes cast.

Given his position in the government, Massa has received a lot of the blame for the  economic woes that Argentina has faced. Because neither he nor his strongest competitor, the laissez-faire libertarian Javier Milei, who received 29.9% of the vote, were able to collect over 45% of the votes or win with a 10-point lead, they will compete in a runoff election on November 19.

"It's an unexpected triumph, which is why Massa has come out of this election round stronger than before," Pablo Seman, a professor for sociology at the National University of General San Martin, told DW. "Sergio Massa embodies change, continuity and moderation in equal parts — a stark contrast to the radicalism of Javier Milei," Seman said.

'Truly miraculous' Massa

After the polls closed, Milei said he had defeated the "mafia," with Massa unable to score a decisive victory and the conservative-liberal former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich coming in a close third with 23.8%.

Bullrich has ruled out cooperating with the incumbent Peronist government. In the upcoming runoff, some of her supporters could switch to backing the libertarian Milei.

Jaime Rosenberg, political editor of the Argentine daily La Nacion, told DW that, considering "a complicated government, a completely disastrous economy, galloping inflation and an exploding dollar," Massa's success was "truly miraculous."

Not only did Massa come out on top in the primary election, Rosenberg said, but he was also "the best-positioned candidate" to win the following round. In the runoff, he might be able to rally votes from supporters of leftist candidate Myriam Bregman and the centrist Juan Schiaretti.

Milei supporters fueled by fear

Though Peronist parties will continue to hold the majority in both legislative houses, Milei's far-right Freedom Advances coalition will have about 40 seats in the lower house of Congress and eight in the Senate. That's quite a haul for an alliance formed in 2021.

Argentines have watched Milei's rise to popularity with growing concern. His radical proposals include closing the Central Bank, privatizing education and breaking off ties with the country's most crucial economic partners, Brazil and China.

Many fear that Argentina would become internationally isolated under Milei — or that the country could return to the economic crisis of 2001.

Through a survey, Seman found that about 10% of supporters had turned to Milei for a radical break. "I believe the Argentine people have a strong desire for change, which Milei personifies," Seman said.

In contrast, Seman said, Massa's profile appeals to Peronists and anti-Peronists alike. In his first address to the public after election results were released, Massa reached out to left voters behind Bregman and centrist voters behind Schiaretti, promising "peace" and "security."

Some mainstream conservatives who backed Bullrich in the first round could also vote for Massa in the runoff.

Bridging Argentina's divide

Rosenberg said Massa had good relations with the United States, which could serve him well as president. He also did not believe that a government under Massa would continue incumbent President Alberto Fernandez's policy of maintaining close ties with Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba.

Seman said the economy minister's political experience compared well with Milei's pronouncements. "Massa is trying to dissolve the old dichotomy between Peronism versus anti-Peronism," Seman said. "Milei is paving the way for him with his divisive and extremist messages."

Should he win the presidency on November 19, Massa would have to develop a stability plan and concentrate all efforts on exiting the current downward inflation spiral.

Whichever government assumes office in Argentina on December 10, the largest challenge will be to formulate economic and financial policies that are measured and even-handed.

This article was translated from German.