Terror in Senegal?

Unlike the neighboring countries of Mali and Mauritania, Senegal has so far not been affected by terrorist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI). But the conflict over the controversial candidacy of President Abdoulaye Wade, who ran for his third term in office on Sunday, has given cause for concern.

In 2010, Senegal expelled Mauritanians accused of membership in the terrorist movement AQMI. One year later, Mauritanian Ahmed Ould Abdalah, former UN special envoy for West Africa, warned Senegal about the presence of sleeper cells in the country.

In January this year, the United Nations sent a mission to the Sahel zone: It was supposed to find out about threats to regional stability and security after the overthrow of Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi. AQMI's kidnapping victims reported that their guards were Senegalese.

Religion vs. politics

Senegalese journalist Mame Less Camara, a longtime observer of the political and religious scene, named several factors that could in the medium term make an infiltration of AQMI in Senegal possible.

"In Senegal, religion is stronger than politics," he said. "We have indeed no theocracy, but a system in which religious officials determine the limits of tolerance."

Camara was referring to marabouts, the spiritual leaders and imams of Islamic brotherhoods. These brotherhoods not only dominate the religious life in Senegal, but also exert a strong influence on the everyday lives of the people.

The training of Senegalese imams increasingly takes place in countries such as Egypt, the Gulf states and Libya where extremist views can be encountered in religious schools. One of the Muslim brotherhoods of Senegal, according to Camara, recruits its believers mostly from Nigeria.

"There are more and more young people who are receptive to the statements of radical preachers and their call to live Islam in its totality," he said.

Experts see no immediate danger

This type of radicalization and a related strengthening of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb can occur only if the state is weak. AQMI has already gained ground in Mali, Mauritania and Niger; and established contacts with the jihadist Boko Haram movement in Nigeria.

But terrorism experts such as Jean-Charles Brisard claimed Senegal is still far from falling into the hands of AQMI because of the terrorist organization's strategy of maintaining their existing spheres of influence.

"They act especially there where they are already well established, therefore, primarily in the Sahel," Brisard said.

Abdoul Aziz-Kébé, who teaches Islamic Studies at the University of Cheikh Anta Diop in Dakar, said brotherhoods actually protect Senegal against fundamentalism.

"The fraternities are regulators, safety nets against Islamism," Aziz-Kébé said. "But if they lose their ground, then there is a risk that radical movements could flourish - and nobody knows what would happen then."

According to Kébé, a political instrumentalization of the brotherhoods could result in their loss of credibility and authority. There are first signs of this happening already, for instance with President Abdoulaye Wade, who in his election campaign, clearly favored the most influential Mourides brotherhood he is a member of.

Author: Dirke Köpp / tt
Editor: Sean Sinico