Africa in 2025: Strengthening democracy key to growth

For the African continent, many experts say that strengthening democracy is key to economic growth in 2025.

In Mozambique, for example, political observers fear that protests against the country's ruling Frelimo party — which was accused of rigging the October presidential election to extend its 49 years in power — will continue into the new year. 

Supporters of popular opposition leader Venancio Mondlane filed a complaint with Constitutional Court and called for talks with Frelimo, which has ruled Mozambique since its independence from Portugal in 1975. 

"The dialogue, which is supposed to be about fundamental points for a fair electoral system, is not being taken seriously by the government," said Adriano Nuvunga, director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in the Mozambican capital, Maputo. 

Democratic resilience: A cause for hope

The lack of democratic norms and problems with unclear elections will remain a cause for concern, said Serwah Prempeh, a senior fellow at the Africa Policy Research Institute's (APRI) economy and society program.

Tunisia and Mauritania have taken steps towards democratization, but elections in both countries were marked by irregularities. 

Tensions in Tunisia mounted in September after the electoral commission, citing irregularities in their filings, rejected a court ruling to reinstate three candidates for the October vote.

At least three people were killed in Mauritania in July during deadly clashes between security forces and protesters rallying against the reelection of President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani. His main rival, anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, rejected the outcome and said the result was falsified.

These kinds of incidents will continue in 2025 if countries do not strengthen their institutions to improve the integrity and quality of elections, transparency and the multiparty system, Prempeh said.

"Overall, progress has been made and these areas of democratic resilience give cause for hope," she said.

There were also numerous elections in 2024 and a peaceful transition from a dominant party to a multiparty government, for example in South Africa or Botswana — where opposition parties have gained ground, South African analyst Daniel Silke told DW. Silke said he hoped that this trend would continue in 2025.

The stakes are high in South Africa, the largest industrialized country on the continent, following the formation of a coalition between the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and the ruling African National Congress after the ANC lost the majority it had enjoyed since the first postapartheid election, in 1994.

"The government of national unity is under pressure — it has to show results," Silke said, with a view toward regional elections planned for 2026.

'Strengthening of institutions' 

Creating jobs and boosting South Africa's ailing economy are key to the coalition's political success in 2025.

The new government's reform efforts have slightly improved growth prospects, with forecasts for 2025 ranging from 1.5% (International Monetary Fund) to 2.6% (Economist Intelligence Unit). 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa aims to use the country's G20 presidency, which began on December 1, not only to represent national interests but also to position South Africa as the mouthpiece for the entire continent and the Global South. 

One platform for agreements is the G20 summit planned for November 2025 in Johannesburg, where the heads of state from all 19 member states, as well as representatives of the EU and the AU, are expected to attend. 

East Africa is the fastest growing region on the continent, with GDP growth expected to rise from an estimated 4.9% in 2024 to 5.7% in 2025, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

Given the global geopolitical risk factors, the pressure on African governments from the United States under the incoming Trump administration, China, Russia and other countries will increase, Silke said.

"The continental free trade agreement (AGOA) could take center stage as it becomes important for African countries to ramp up their intra-African trade in the face of global headwinds." 

Despite these concerns, Africa's fundamentals remain solid and the opportunities for markets on the continent are enormous, Silke said.

Prempeh said fiscal pressures were increasing in many African countries — meaning that already-shrunk budgets remain fragile and currency fluctuations, mismanagement and rising interest payments are leading to unsustainable levels of debt, for example in Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria. 

"The way forward in 2025 requires the strengthening of institutions and the introduction of sound economic management and governance practices," Prempeh said.

Growing instability

Regional crises will hinder development. Wars and armed conflicts, as well as extreme weather conditions, have driven millions of people from their homes.

According to a report by the the Internal Displacement Mointoring Centre (IDMC), about 35 million Africans were living as refugees and displaced persons within their home countries at the end of 2024.

About 32.5 million people had fled violence and armed conflicts. The IDMC found that about 80% of the internally displaced people in Africa were concentrated in just five countries: Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Somalia.

If governments and their partners do not redouble their efforts, the number of refugees will continue to rise, the report found.

Premeph said there were still considerable political setbacks in West Africa and the Sahel: Coups and military governments in Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali threaten to undo democratic gains. Terrorism will continue to overshadow security and upcoming elections in the region.

Gabon, on the other hand, shows a positive development: General Brice Oligui Nguema seized power in 2023 and replaced long-term ruler Bongo. Following a successful election to amend the constitution, Gabon is on the way to a civil, democratic government — if the presidential elections in August are free and fair. 

In neighboring Cameroon, 91-year-old Paul Biya has ruled for 41 years and will run again in 2025, which is a sign of ongoing economic fragility, Prempeh said.

And the trend is not unique to Cameroon, he said: "Leading politicians in countries like Uganda and Rwanda have also extended their terms in office, while the civic space is shrinking." 

Edited by: Keith Walker